發(fā)布時間：2018-05-13 21:34

  本文選題：河北省 + 可再生能源��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國“十二五”規(guī)劃提出了推動能源生產和利用方式變革的新思路,確定了到2020年實現(xiàn)非化石能源消費比重提高到15%和單位GDP碳減排40%~45%的兩個約束性指標。河北省作為能源消耗和碳排放的大省,因此需要承擔較大的碳減排實施壓力�？稍偕�能源的發(fā)展對中國實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展至關重要,同時也是規(guī)避傳統(tǒng)能源價格波動風險的一種方式。從可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面來看,二氧化碳的減排需求,以及對于未來能源短缺和氣候變化的擔憂促使政府采取政策措施來促進可再生能源發(fā)展。河北地區(qū)的可再生能源具備良好的資源發(fā)展基礎,其品種齊全,數(shù)量眾多,資源基礎非常雄厚。本研究將煤炭、石油和天然氣、電能、太陽能、風能以及生物質能作為主要能源要素,構建了河北省可再生能源政策CGE模型,并在模型研究的基礎上實證分析河北省可再生能源政策對經濟發(fā)展、能源消費以及碳減排等宏觀指標的影響。本文首先闡述了針對河北省可再生能源發(fā)展政策的研究背景及研究意義,分析了本研究的必要性和重要性;其次,從可再生能源政策和CGE模型兩個方面,闡述了國內外在相關領域研究的現(xiàn)狀,為本研究提供借鑒和指導。接著,詳細分析了河北省能源以及可再生能源利用的現(xiàn)狀,并介紹了河北省可再生能源(太陽能、風能以及生物質能)利用模式和可再生能源政策的情況,在此基礎上對河北省可再生能源結構進行分析;分析發(fā)現(xiàn)煤炭、石油和天然氣為主的化石能源仍然是河北省能源消費的主體,其中以煤炭消費為主,可再生能源的利用比重較低約2%,河北地區(qū)擁有發(fā)展可再生能源的良好條件,具有巨大的發(fā)展空間。隨后,在介紹CGE模型相關理論的基礎上,結合河北省能源消費以及能源政策的實際構建了河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型,包括了能源模塊、生產模塊、貿易模塊、價格模塊、消費模塊、均衡模塊以及可再生能源模塊。在模型構建的基礎上,結合河北省投入產出表設計了河北省可再生能源政策分析的社會核算矩陣,并運用交叉熵法對原始SAM矩陣進行平衡處理;此外,給出了模型公式中關鍵參數(shù)的取值。最后,基于所建立的河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型以及社會核算矩陣來分析河北省太陽能、風能以及生物質能的電價政策對可再生能源、能源、經濟以及環(huán)境等的影響效應并提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:The 12th Five-Year Plan of our country puts forward a new idea to promote the transformation of energy production and utilization mode, and determines two binding targets of increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to 15% by 2020 and reducing carbon emissions by 40% and 45% per unit GDP. As a big province of energy consumption and carbon emission, Hebei Province needs to bear the pressure of carbon emission reduction. The development of renewable energy is very important for China to realize sustainable development, and it is also a way to avoid the risk of traditional energy price fluctuation. In terms of sustainable development, the demand for carbon dioxide emissions reductions, as well as concerns about future energy shortages and climate change, have prompted governments to adopt policy measures to promote renewable energy. Hebei renewable energy has a good resource development foundation, its variety is complete, the quantity is numerous, the resource base is very strong. Taking coal, oil and natural gas, electric energy, solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy as the main energy elements, the CGE model of renewable energy policy in Hebei Province was constructed. The impact of renewable energy policy on economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province is analyzed empirically on the basis of the model. In this paper, the background and significance of the research on renewable energy development policy in Hebei Province are first expounded, and the necessity and importance of this study are analyzed. Secondly, from two aspects of renewable energy policy and CGE model, The current situation of domestic and international research in related fields is expounded, which provides reference and guidance for this study. Then, the current situation of energy and renewable energy utilization in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail, and the utilization patterns and renewable energy policies of renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass energy) in Hebei Province are introduced. On this basis, the structure of renewable energy in Hebei Province is analyzed, and it is found that fossil energy, which is dominated by coal, oil and natural gas, is still the main source of energy consumption in Hebei Province, in which coal consumption is the main source. The utilization proportion of renewable energy is low about 2%. Hebei has good conditions for developing renewable energy and has a huge space for development. Then, on the basis of introducing the theory of CGE model, combined with the actual energy consumption and energy policy of Hebei Province, the CGE model of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is constructed, which includes energy module, production module, trade module. Price module, consumption module, balance module and renewable energy module. Based on the model construction, the social accounting matrix of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is designed based on the input-output table of Hebei Province, and the original SAM matrix is balanced by cross-entropy method. The values of key parameters in the model formula are given. Finally, based on the established CGE model and social accounting matrix of renewable energy policy analysis in Hebei Province, the electricity price policy of solar, wind and biomass energy in Hebei Province is analyzed. Economic and environmental effects and policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 嚴靜;張群洪;;中國可再生能源電價補貼及對宏觀經濟的影響[J];統(tǒng)計與信息論壇;2014年10期

2 王臘芳;肖皓;肖明智;;基于動態(tài)CGE模型的能源價格傳導效應分析[J];財經理論與實踐;2014年05期

3 田宜水;;2013年中國農村能源發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與趨勢[J];中國能源;2014年08期

4 齊天宇;楊遠哲;張希良;;國際跨區(qū)碳市場及其能源經濟影響評估[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2014年03期

5 席暉;高志紅;;河北省農村可再生能源的利用和開發(fā)[J];河南科技;2014年01期

6 汪鵬;成貝貝;趙黛青;;基于兩區(qū)域動態(tài)CGE模型的廣東碳減排政策綜合評估[J];生態(tài)經濟(學術版);2013年02期

7 于立宏;郁義鴻;;光伏產業(yè)政策體系評估:多層次抑或多元化[J];改革;2012年08期

8 謝國輝;李瓊慧;王乾坤;黃碧斌;曹石亞;;可再生能源配額制的國外實踐及相關啟示[J];能源技術經濟;2012年07期

9 王玫;趙曉麗;;中國風電發(fā)展經濟政策回顧與分析[J];中國能源;2011年10期

10 劉益君;;國內外光伏產業(yè)政策比較研究[J];生產力研究;2010年12期

，

本文編號：1884913