本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國財政政策產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)的非對稱性研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國財政政策產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)的非對稱性研究

Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Policy on the Actual Output in China

[1] [2]

CHU Deyin,CUI Lili（Anhui University of Finance and Economics, 233030; National Academy of Economic Strategy, CASS, 100836;Anhui University of Finance and Economics, 233030）

[1]中國社會科學(xué)院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院,233030; [2]安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué),233030

文章摘要：政府在經(jīng)濟周期的不同態(tài)勢下運用財政政策調(diào)控產(chǎn)出，不僅需要科學(xué)抉擇其政策取向，還要準(zhǔn)確把握政策的力度與節(jié)奏。本文通過采用實際產(chǎn)出缺口作為門限變量，然后采用非線性門限SVAR模型與廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)，全面考察了我國財政政策對實際產(chǎn)出波動的調(diào)控效果。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：財政政策沖擊在“好”與“壞”兩種時期對實際產(chǎn)出的沖擊效果具有非常明顯的非對稱性凱恩斯效應(yīng)。一方面，政府支出沖擊在“壞”的時期對實際產(chǎn)出的當(dāng)期拉動效應(yīng)要比“好”的時期高出0．1742個百分點，而且對實際產(chǎn)出的累積拉動效應(yīng)也更為持久和效果更為明顯。另一方面，政府稅收沖擊對實際產(chǎn)出的當(dāng)期抑制效應(yīng)在“壞”的時期要高出“好”的時期0．4680個百分點，其滯后效應(yīng)的變動軌跡在“好”與“壞”兩個時期基本一致，，但滯后效應(yīng)的絕對幅度并不相同。本文的研究可以為政府利用財政政策實施區(qū)間調(diào)控與定向調(diào)控提供實際依據(jù)，還有助于改善我國財政政策實踐的操作效率和運行效果，從而提高財政政策區(qū)間調(diào)控的科學(xué)性與定向調(diào)控的精準(zhǔn)性。

Abstr：In order to use fiscal policies to control output under different situations of the economic cycle, the government should not only make scientific choice to decide the policy direction, but also accurately grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy. Based on the linear SVAR model, this paper chooses actual output gap as threshold variable. Then, the paper uses the nonlinear threshold SVAR model and the generalized impulse response function to comprehensively inspect the regulation effect of fiscal policy on the actual output. The results show that, compared with linear impulse response function, the impulse of fiscal policy has an asymmetric Keynesian effect on the actual output in the ＂good＂ and ＂bad＂ periods. On one hand, the current pulling effect of government spending impulse on the actual output in the ＂bad＂ period is 0. 1742 percentage point higher than that in the ＂good＂ period, and the cumulative pulling effect is more durable and apparent. On the other hand, the current inhibiting effect of government tax impulse on the actual output in the ＂bad＂ period is 0. 4680 percentage point higher than that in the ＂good＂ period, and the change orbits of hysteretic effect are basically the same in both ＂good＂ and ＂bad＂ periods, but the absolute amplitudes differ. The conclusion of the paper could provide practical basis for the government to adopt fiscal policy to implement interval control and directional control, and decision reference to government for formulating fiscal policy, and help to improve China＇s fiscal policy＇s operation efficiency. At last, it might help improve the scientific nature of interval control of fiscal policy and the accuracy of directional control.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Economic Cycle, Fiscal Policy, Nonlinear SVAR Model, Generalized Impulse Response Function

課題項目：基金資助：國家社會科學(xué)基金“居民邊際消費傾向與擴大國內(nèi)消費問題研究”（i0CJYO16）,博士后基金“財政政策非凱恩斯效應(yīng)的理論架構(gòu)與中國實證檢驗”（2012M520022）,安徽省自然科學(xué)基金面上項目“政府民生性支出的利益歸宿及其形成機制研究”（1508085MG139）.本文為“財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟筆會2014”的會議論文,作者感謝與會專家學(xué)者的點評和建議.文責(zé)自負(fù).

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國財政政策產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)的非對稱性研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。