發(fā)布時間：2018-03-06 03:27

  本文選題：風險管理　切入點：模糊層次分析　出處：《中國海洋大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是居民生活的重要載體是城市建設的重要保障。從我國目前房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)實際來看,雖然近10年左右的時間,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)歷了大的起伏波動,但無法否認的是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)仍然是我國國民經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,因為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對經(jīng)濟的重要影響,越來越多的學者從理論的方面對房地產(chǎn)項目管理進行了深入的研究,逐漸的形成了一門新的學科。從目前理論界來看,國外對項目管理的整個運作過程研究歷史相對較早,國內(nèi)對這方面的研究起步相對較晚,的的確確存在一定的差距。在項目管理的整個過程包括項目進度控制、項目風險管理等都是比較重要的本文結合濟南龍洞路鑫源山莊房地產(chǎn)項目對風險管理進行了研究。本文以濟南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設項目為研究對象,充分利用項目管理理論、項目風險管理理論進行了分析研究,主要研究步驟如下：首先對研究此項目的背景和意義進行闡述,并分析了國內(nèi)外對項目風險管理的研究現(xiàn)狀,詳細介紹了濟南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設項目的基本情況,提出了相應的研究內(nèi)容和方法；其次通過對濟南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設項目的投資階段、前期準備階段、建設階段以及后期的銷售階段等四個階段進行了風險識別,并對所識別出的風險著重運用模糊綜合評價法進行項目整個過程的全面評價；最后結合識別、評價出的風險,分別針對四個階段提出了相應的風險控制措施,主要是：投資決策階段,應當著重考慮項目銷售能否按照預定計劃完成,銷售資金能否及時得到回收、銷售價格能否下降,同業(yè)者的競爭；前期準備階段,對市場供求風險的控制措施,對資金籌集風險的控制措施,法律、法規(guī)風險的控制措施；項目建設階段：對施工進度風險的控制措施,對設計變更風險的控制措施；項目銷售階段：主要是選擇合理的營銷模式等。本文研究的濟南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設項目的風險管理,結合項目自身特點,基本的建立了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風險管控的模型,為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商提供了一定的參考依據(jù),實現(xiàn)了對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目的風險預警。同時,著重通過分析市場環(huán)境、項目本身優(yōu)劣勢特點等構建項目合理的風險防控體系,將這種策略運用到其他類似房地產(chǎn)項目是可行的,對于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)來說具有一定的指導和操作意義。利用模糊綜合評判法和層次分析法,建立了濟南龍洞路項目鑫源山莊風險評價的模型,實現(xiàn)了風險評價和風險等級排序的評定,對項目風險管控具有指導意義。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important carrier of living is an important guarantee of city construction. From China's current real estate industry practice, although in recent 10 years, China's real estate industry has experienced large fluctuations, but it is undeniable that the real estate industry is still an important part of our national economy because the real estate industry, an important influence on the economy, more and more scholars have conducted in-depth research on the real estate project management from the aspects of the theory, and gradually formed a new subject. From the present theory, the foreign study of history in the process of project management in domestic research started relatively early, this the relatively late, indeed there is a certain gap in the whole process of project management including project schedule control, project risk management is more important in this paper Ji'nan Xinyuan cave Road Villa real estate projects carried out research on risk management. This paper takes Ji'nan cave Road, Xinyuan villa construction project as the research object, make full use of project management theory, project risk management theory is studied, the main steps are as follows: firstly the background and significance of the research of this project are described, and the analysis of the research status at home and abroad to project risk management, introduces the basic situation of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project, puts forward the research contents and methods of the corresponding; followed by Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project investment stage, preparation stage, construction stage and sales of late stage of four stages of risk identification, comprehensive evaluation and the risk of the identified mainly uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the whole project process; finally, the identification, risk assessment According to the four stages, put forward the corresponding risk control measures, mainly investment decision stage, should focus on project sales can be completed according to the schedule, funds can get timely recovery of sales, sales prices will decline, the industry competition; the preparation stage, control measures on market supply and demand risk, legal control measures to raise funds, risk, risk control measures and regulations; project construction phase: measures to control the risk of construction schedule, control measures of design change risk; project sales: the main stage if choosing reasonable marketing mode. This paper studies the risk management of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction projects, combined with the project characteristics basically, the establishment of the real estate development risk management model, which provides a certain reference for real estate developers, the realization of real estate Risk warning development project. At the same time, mainly through the analysis of the market environment, advantages and disadvantages of the project itself characteristics construction project reasonable risk prevention and control system, this method will be applied to other similar real estate project is feasible, and it has certain guiding significance for the operation of real estate enterprises. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method, established the risk assessment of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road project model, realizes the evaluation of risk assessment and risk rank, has the guiding sense to the project risk management.

【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F299.23;TU71

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本文編號：1573156