突發(fā)事件下謠言傳播的機(jī)制與防控策略研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-05-19 23:58
【摘要】：由于自然條件、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、人口等因素,我國(guó)是一個(gè)自然災(zāi)害、事故災(zāi)難等突發(fā)事件多發(fā)的國(guó)家。突發(fā)事件所帶來(lái)的災(zāi)害種類(lèi)繁多,發(fā)生頻率較高,造成的損失非常大�；仡櫲祟�(lèi)歷史上發(fā)生的重大突發(fā)事件,幾乎每一次都會(huì)伴隨著大量的謠言傳播。謠言的傳播對(duì)于社會(huì)的危害極大,不僅影響人們的日常生活,還會(huì)對(duì)正常的社會(huì)秩序與政治穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)極大的影響,甚至演變成社會(huì)公眾事件。突發(fā)事件后,政府相關(guān)部門(mén)迅速啟動(dòng)應(yīng)急預(yù)案,采取相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急措施來(lái)控制事態(tài)發(fā)展,組織開(kāi)展應(yīng)急救援和處置工作以減少損失。謠言的傳播將給應(yīng)急處置、應(yīng)急物流的組織產(chǎn)生很大的影響。對(duì)謠言傳播過(guò)程的研究有助于對(duì)謠言傳播的控制。研究突發(fā)事件后謠言的傳播機(jī)理、蔓延和擴(kuò)散途徑、影響因素,以及如何掌握控制和引導(dǎo)輿情動(dòng)態(tài)演化等成為當(dāng)前學(xué)術(shù)界的研究熱點(diǎn)。這些理論成果對(duì)政府應(yīng)急管理部門(mén)掌握謠言傳播的途徑和演變規(guī)律,做好突發(fā)事件的社會(huì)輿情預(yù)警,提高政府對(duì)謠言的干預(yù)和控制能力,具有十分重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。論文以突發(fā)事件后的謠言為研究主體,應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的理論和方法,考慮媒體影響、時(shí)滯、政府控制能力限制、反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散等因素,建立更加符合實(shí)際的幾類(lèi)時(shí)滯謠言傳播模型,并研究其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征,具體如下:(1)考慮媒體影響的時(shí)滯SIR謠言傳播模型建立及其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征分析考慮從傳播者轉(zhuǎn)化為知謠不傳謠者所需要的時(shí)間,引入政府控制延遲,提出了突發(fā)事件后考慮媒體影響的時(shí)滯SIR謠言傳播模型,并研究了其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征。通過(guò)把時(shí)滯作為分岔參數(shù),探討了邊界平衡點(diǎn)和正平衡點(diǎn)的局部穩(wěn)定性,得到了 Hopf分岔的條件。然后,采用規(guī)范形式方法和中心流形定理,提出了確定Hopf分岔方向和分岔周期解的穩(wěn)定性公式。最后,還給出了一些數(shù)值模擬來(lái)說(shuō)明我們的理論結(jié)果。通過(guò)理論分析與數(shù)值仿真,發(fā)現(xiàn)政府控制延遲對(duì)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性有著很大的影響。政府控制延遲能夠引起平衡點(diǎn)失穩(wěn),發(fā)生Hopf分支現(xiàn)象并導(dǎo)致周期振動(dòng)出現(xiàn)。當(dāng)時(shí)滯穿過(guò)某個(gè)臨界值時(shí),系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生周期解。此外,當(dāng)系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定時(shí),隨著時(shí)滯的增大,系統(tǒng)收斂的速度越來(lái)越慢。通過(guò)對(duì)媒體影響和政府控制延遲的調(diào)節(jié),可以達(dá)到控制謠言傳播的目的。(2 )帶有飽和控制函數(shù)的時(shí)滯謠言傳播模型建立及其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征分析考慮謠言傳播治理中政府控制資源及能力水平的有限性,引入飽和控制函數(shù),建立帶有飽和控制函數(shù)的時(shí)滯謠言傳播模型并分析其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征。以時(shí)滯為分岔參數(shù),研究了系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定和Hopf分岔問(wèn)題。探討了邊界平衡點(diǎn)和正平衡點(diǎn)的局部穩(wěn)定性,得到了 Hopf分岔的條件。采用規(guī)范形式方法和中心流形定理,提出了確定Hopf分岔方向和分岔周期解的穩(wěn)定性公式。給出了一些數(shù)值模擬來(lái)說(shuō)明我們的理論結(jié)果。仿真結(jié)果表明:當(dāng)感染者的數(shù)量很小和政府控制的資源足夠,那么謠言控制的結(jié)果是令人滿(mǎn)意的,否則,群體將有發(fā)生社會(huì)公共事件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。政府的控制行為可以改變謠言達(dá)到平衡時(shí)的大小,這意味著如果發(fā)生謠言傳播引起的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩問(wèn)題,政府控制有利于保護(hù)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定;適當(dāng)?shù)恼刂七�可使系統(tǒng)的周期振蕩行為變?yōu)榉�(wěn)定,因而能改善社會(huì)系統(tǒng)的平衡;當(dāng)政府加大控制時(shí),可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致謠言的滅絕。對(duì)謠言傳播者進(jìn)行及時(shí)的影響和干預(yù),提高政府控制水平和控制能力,減少傳播系數(shù)都是控制謠言的有效方法。(3)時(shí)滯反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散謠言傳播模型建立及其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征分析將時(shí)滯和反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散項(xiàng)同時(shí)引入謠言傳播研究,考慮空間擴(kuò)散的因素、時(shí)滯效應(yīng)和政府控制問(wèn)題,建立了具有政府控制項(xiàng)的時(shí)滯反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散謠言傳播模型并分析其動(dòng)力學(xué)特征。論文應(yīng)用偏微分方程理論討論了模型的穩(wěn)定性,以時(shí)滯為分岔參數(shù)研究了系統(tǒng)的Hopf分支問(wèn)。理論分析與數(shù)值仿真表明時(shí)滯可使系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性發(fā)生改變,當(dāng)時(shí)滯穿過(guò)某個(gè)臨界值時(shí),Hopf分支發(fā)生。在一定的條件下,正平衡點(diǎn)可達(dá)到全局漸近穩(wěn)定。然后,利用數(shù)值仿真討論了時(shí)滯、擴(kuò)散以及政府控制對(duì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力的影響。對(duì)于時(shí)間模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)存在關(guān)于時(shí)滯的閾值:當(dāng)時(shí)滯小于該閾值,則正平衡點(diǎn)是漸近穩(wěn)定的;當(dāng)時(shí)滯超過(guò)該閾值,則正平衡點(diǎn)是不穩(wěn)定,并且會(huì)出現(xiàn)小振幅周期解。對(duì)于時(shí)空模型,通過(guò)數(shù)學(xué)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)點(diǎn)移動(dòng)有效降低了謠言傳播的振蕩程度,意味著反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散能夠降低產(chǎn)生社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩的可能性,說(shuō)明我們引進(jìn)的擴(kuò)散有著重要的作用。政府調(diào)控力度對(duì)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性有著重大影響,政府如果加大調(diào)控的力度,則謠言傳播者的數(shù)量就大幅減少,同時(shí)易感者與理性人群的數(shù)量大幅增加。政府調(diào)控力度的加大,也使得系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定域擴(kuò)大。論文挖掘謠言傳播的內(nèi)在機(jī)制,研究重要參數(shù)(如時(shí)滯、政府控制、反應(yīng)擴(kuò)散)對(duì)模型動(dòng)力學(xué)行為的影響及控制策略,進(jìn)一步豐富現(xiàn)有謠言傳播理論成果,為有效控制和引導(dǎo)社會(huì)公眾行為提供理論、方法和決策支持。
[Abstract]:As a result of the natural conditions, economic development level, population and other factors, our country is a country with many accidents such as natural disasters and accident disasters. There are a wide variety of disasters caused by the incident, and the frequency of occurrence is high, and the resulting loss is very large. A review of the major unexpected events in the history of human history, almost every time, is accompanied by a large number of rumors. The spread of the rumor has great harm to the society, not only affects people's daily life, but also has great influence on the normal social order and political stability, and even into the public events. After the emergency, the relevant departments of the government quickly start the emergency plan, take corresponding emergency measures to control the development, and organize the emergency rescue and disposal work to reduce the loss. The spread of the rumors will have a great impact on the emergency disposal and the organization of the emergency logistics. The study of the spread of the rumor has helped to control the spread of the rumor. The study of the transmission mechanism, the spread and the diffusion way, the influence factors and how to control and guide the dynamic evolution of public opinion become the research focus of the current academic circles. These theoretical achievements have very important theoretical and practical significance to the government's emergency management department to master the way and the evolution law of the rumor transmission, to do well the social public opinion warning of the emergency, to improve the government's intervention and control ability to the rumor. Based on the rumour of the incident, the paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and takes into account the factors such as the influence of the media, the time-delay, the restriction of the control ability of the government, the diffusion of the reaction, etc., and sets up a more realistic type of time-delay rumor propagation model, and studies the dynamic characteristics. (1) taking into account the time-delay SIR rumor propagation model established by the media and the dynamic characteristic analysis, taking into account the time required by the propagation of the transmission to the ballad without the ballad, and introducing the government control delay, In this paper, the propagation model of time-delay SIR (SIR), which takes into account the influence of the media, is put forward, and its dynamic characteristics are also studied. By using the time-delay as the bifurcation parameter, the local stability of the boundary and the positive equilibrium point is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. Then, the stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, it is found that the control delay of the government has a great influence on the stability of the system. The control delay of the government can cause the equilibrium point to be unstable, and the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon and the periodic vibration occur. The system generates a periodic solution when it passes through a critical value. In addition, when the system is stable, the speed of the system converges more and more slowly with the increase of time-delay. By adjusting the influence of the media and the delay of the government's control, the purpose of controlling the transmission of the rumor can be reached. (2) The establishment of a delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function and the dynamic characteristic analysis take into account the limitation of the government's control resources and the ability level in the transmission of the rumor, and introduces the saturation control function. A time-delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. The stability of the system and the bifurcation of the Hopf bifurcation are studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The local stability of the boundary and positive equilibrium points is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. The stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. The simulation results show that when the number of the infected persons is small and the resources of the government control are sufficient, the result of the rumor control is satisfactory, otherwise, the group will have the risk of social public events. The government's control can change the size of the rumor, which means that if there is a social unrest that is caused by the spread of the rumor, the government's control is favorable to the protection of social stability; the proper government control can also make the periodic oscillation behavior of the system stable, So it can improve the balance of the social system; when the government increases its control, it may lead to the extermination of the rumour. The effective way to control the rumor is to improve the government's control level and control ability, and to reduce the transmission coefficient. (3) The establishment of the propagation model of the diffusion of the delayed reaction diffusion and the dynamic characteristics of the diffusion are introduced, and the time-delay and the reaction-diffusion term are simultaneously introduced into the rumor propagation research, and the factors, the time-delay effect and the government control problem of the spatial diffusion are considered. In this paper, a time-delay reaction spread rumor propagation model with government control terms is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. In this paper, the stability of the model is discussed with the theory of partial differential equation, and the Hopf branch of the system is studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the time delay can change the stability of the system, when the hysteresis passes through a certain critical value, the Hopf branch takes place. Under certain conditions, the positive equilibrium point can achieve global asymptotic stability. Then, the effect of time-delay, diffusion and the government's control on the power of the system is discussed by numerical simulation. For a time model, it is found that there is a threshold for time delay: when the hysteresis is less than the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is asymptotically stable; when the hysteresis exceeds the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is unstable and a small amplitude periodic solution is present. For the space-time model, through the mathematical analysis, it is found that the movement of the node effectively reduces the degree of oscillation of the rumor propagation, which means that the reaction diffusion can reduce the possibility of generating social unrest, and it is important to explain the diffusion of the introduced diffusion. The government's control efforts have a great impact on the stability of the system, and if the government is stepping up its regulation, the number of the rumors spreading is greatly reduced, and the number of the easyand the rational population is greatly increased. The increase of the government's control has also led to the expansion of the stability of the system. In this paper, the internal mechanism of the propagation of the rumors, the influence of the important parameters (such as time-delay, the government control, the reaction spread) on the model's dynamic behavior and the control strategy are studied. Methods and decision support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D63;G206
本文編號(hào)：2481181
[Abstract]:As a result of the natural conditions, economic development level, population and other factors, our country is a country with many accidents such as natural disasters and accident disasters. There are a wide variety of disasters caused by the incident, and the frequency of occurrence is high, and the resulting loss is very large. A review of the major unexpected events in the history of human history, almost every time, is accompanied by a large number of rumors. The spread of the rumor has great harm to the society, not only affects people's daily life, but also has great influence on the normal social order and political stability, and even into the public events. After the emergency, the relevant departments of the government quickly start the emergency plan, take corresponding emergency measures to control the development, and organize the emergency rescue and disposal work to reduce the loss. The spread of the rumors will have a great impact on the emergency disposal and the organization of the emergency logistics. The study of the spread of the rumor has helped to control the spread of the rumor. The study of the transmission mechanism, the spread and the diffusion way, the influence factors and how to control and guide the dynamic evolution of public opinion become the research focus of the current academic circles. These theoretical achievements have very important theoretical and practical significance to the government's emergency management department to master the way and the evolution law of the rumor transmission, to do well the social public opinion warning of the emergency, to improve the government's intervention and control ability to the rumor. Based on the rumour of the incident, the paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and takes into account the factors such as the influence of the media, the time-delay, the restriction of the control ability of the government, the diffusion of the reaction, etc., and sets up a more realistic type of time-delay rumor propagation model, and studies the dynamic characteristics. (1) taking into account the time-delay SIR rumor propagation model established by the media and the dynamic characteristic analysis, taking into account the time required by the propagation of the transmission to the ballad without the ballad, and introducing the government control delay, In this paper, the propagation model of time-delay SIR (SIR), which takes into account the influence of the media, is put forward, and its dynamic characteristics are also studied. By using the time-delay as the bifurcation parameter, the local stability of the boundary and the positive equilibrium point is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. Then, the stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, it is found that the control delay of the government has a great influence on the stability of the system. The control delay of the government can cause the equilibrium point to be unstable, and the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon and the periodic vibration occur. The system generates a periodic solution when it passes through a critical value. In addition, when the system is stable, the speed of the system converges more and more slowly with the increase of time-delay. By adjusting the influence of the media and the delay of the government's control, the purpose of controlling the transmission of the rumor can be reached. (2) The establishment of a delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function and the dynamic characteristic analysis take into account the limitation of the government's control resources and the ability level in the transmission of the rumor, and introduces the saturation control function. A time-delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. The stability of the system and the bifurcation of the Hopf bifurcation are studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The local stability of the boundary and positive equilibrium points is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. The stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. The simulation results show that when the number of the infected persons is small and the resources of the government control are sufficient, the result of the rumor control is satisfactory, otherwise, the group will have the risk of social public events. The government's control can change the size of the rumor, which means that if there is a social unrest that is caused by the spread of the rumor, the government's control is favorable to the protection of social stability; the proper government control can also make the periodic oscillation behavior of the system stable, So it can improve the balance of the social system; when the government increases its control, it may lead to the extermination of the rumour. The effective way to control the rumor is to improve the government's control level and control ability, and to reduce the transmission coefficient. (3) The establishment of the propagation model of the diffusion of the delayed reaction diffusion and the dynamic characteristics of the diffusion are introduced, and the time-delay and the reaction-diffusion term are simultaneously introduced into the rumor propagation research, and the factors, the time-delay effect and the government control problem of the spatial diffusion are considered. In this paper, a time-delay reaction spread rumor propagation model with government control terms is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. In this paper, the stability of the model is discussed with the theory of partial differential equation, and the Hopf branch of the system is studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the time delay can change the stability of the system, when the hysteresis passes through a certain critical value, the Hopf branch takes place. Under certain conditions, the positive equilibrium point can achieve global asymptotic stability. Then, the effect of time-delay, diffusion and the government's control on the power of the system is discussed by numerical simulation. For a time model, it is found that there is a threshold for time delay: when the hysteresis is less than the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is asymptotically stable; when the hysteresis exceeds the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is unstable and a small amplitude periodic solution is present. For the space-time model, through the mathematical analysis, it is found that the movement of the node effectively reduces the degree of oscillation of the rumor propagation, which means that the reaction diffusion can reduce the possibility of generating social unrest, and it is important to explain the diffusion of the introduced diffusion. The government's control efforts have a great impact on the stability of the system, and if the government is stepping up its regulation, the number of the rumors spreading is greatly reduced, and the number of the easyand the rational population is greatly increased. The increase of the government's control has also led to the expansion of the stability of the system. In this paper, the internal mechanism of the propagation of the rumors, the influence of the important parameters (such as time-delay, the government control, the reaction spread) on the model's dynamic behavior and the control strategy are studied. Methods and decision support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D63;G206
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