發(fā)布時間：2018-06-23 17:47

  本文選題：現(xiàn)金分紅 + 股利政策　； 參考：《南京師范大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國股市向來“重圈錢、輕回報”。據(jù)WIND資訊數(shù)據(jù),1990年至2010年,20年間滬深兩市包括首發(fā)、增發(fā)、配股在內的累計融資金額高達3.7萬億元。而這20年間,滬深兩市上市公司累計實施分紅金額16050億元,累計現(xiàn)金分紅金額占總融資金額的43.3%,年化現(xiàn)金股利收益率約為1.8%,不僅低于一年期銀行存款利率,還遠遠低于標準普爾500指數(shù)140年的歷史平均股利收益率(為4.63%)。較低的股利收益率培養(yǎng)出了投資者錯誤的投資理念,助長了投機炒作之風氣。與現(xiàn)金股利收益率低相對應的是高股票股利,分配高股票股利的上市公司股價容易受到炒作,加劇股市的短期波動。因此,較低的股利收益率不僅阻礙資金的持續(xù)入市,還不利于價值投資者隊伍的壯大,更不利于中國股市的長期穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 隨著中國股市的成熟發(fā)展,證券監(jiān)管部門已經注意的這一問題,也陸續(xù)出臺了相關的政策規(guī)定鼓勵現(xiàn)金分紅。然而,“一刀切”的做法沒有針對性,反而導致了其他的一些不良現(xiàn)象。如超額派現(xiàn)、象征性分紅等等。 為了能夠真正的規(guī)范提高現(xiàn)金股利分配,必須先弄清楚現(xiàn)金股利的影響因素。因此,本文對影響現(xiàn)金股利的因素做了深刻的理論分析,并根據(jù)理論分析提出研究假設。為了驗證理論分析的真?zhèn)?本文把變量劃分為上市公司財務因素變量、公司治理結構變量、外部因素三大類,并通過建立多遠線性回歸模型的方法把三類變量逐步引入模型。為了避免模型結果的片面性,本文選取2009年和2010年兩年的數(shù)據(jù)進行實證研究,并對比研究結果,以得出更具廣泛適用性的模型。 為了研究不同行業(yè)現(xiàn)金股利分配的差異性影響因素。我們設立虛擬變量HYCZ和LRLRL把行業(yè)分為成長型行業(yè)和衰退性行業(yè)、高利潤行業(yè)和低利潤行業(yè)。并將這兩個虛擬變量納入多元線性回歸模型,研究行業(yè)性質對現(xiàn)金股利分配的影響。 最終的實證研究結果表明,大多數(shù)的變量通過了顯著性檢驗。每股收益、每股經營現(xiàn)金流、第一大股東持股比例、高管薪酬、報告數(shù)量對每股現(xiàn)金股利有顯著正向影響,而每股未分配利潤、資產負債率、主營業(yè)務收入增長對每股現(xiàn)金股利有顯著反向影響。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于把上市公司面臨的信貸環(huán)境納入研究模型。以往的研究主要針對上市公司內部因素對現(xiàn)金股利分配的影響,本文擴展研究視角,將針對上市公司的研報數(shù)量和當年信貸規(guī)模作為外部變量納入研究模型。最終報告數(shù)量通過了顯著性檢驗,并對每股現(xiàn)金股利有顯著正向影響,而信貸規(guī)模變量并沒有通過顯著性檢驗。作者希望通過進一步的學習,并選用更加適合的指標做進一步的相關研究。
[Abstract]:China's stock market has always been "heavy circle of money, less return." According to win data, the cumulative amount of capital raised in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets between 1990 and 2010 was as high as 3.7 trillion yuan, including initial public offerings, additional offerings and rights issues. In the past 20 years, the listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have implemented a cumulative dividend of 1.605 trillion yuan, and the accumulated cash dividend amount accounts for 43.3% of the total financing amount. The annual cash dividend yield is about 1.8%, which is not only lower than the one-year bank deposit interest rate. It is also well below the 140-year average dividend yield of the S & P 500 (4.63%). The lower dividend yield cultivates the wrong investment idea of investors and encourages speculative speculation. The low yield of cash dividend corresponds to the high stock dividend. The stock price of the listed company that distributes the high stock dividend is easy to be hyped and the short-term fluctuation of the stock market is aggravated. Therefore, the lower dividend yield not only hinders the sustained entry of funds into the market, but also is not conducive to the growth of value investors, but also to the long-term stable development of Chinese stock market. As China's stock market matures, securities regulators have been paying attention to this issue, has also introduced policies to encourage cash dividends. However, the "one-size-fits-all" approach did not target, but led to some other undesirable phenomena. Such as over-payment, symbolic dividends and so on. In order to improve the distribution of cash dividend, it is necessary to find out the influencing factors of cash dividend. Therefore, this paper makes a profound theoretical analysis of the factors affecting cash dividend, and puts forward the research hypotheses according to the theoretical analysis. In order to verify the authenticity of the theoretical analysis, this paper divides the variables into three categories: financial variables, corporate governance variables and external factors, and introduces the three variables into the model step by establishing a multi-distance linear regression model. In order to avoid the one-sidedness of the model results, this paper selects the data from 2009 and 2010 to carry on the empirical research, and compares the research results, in order to obtain the more widely applicable model. In order to study the different factors of cash dividend distribution in different industries. We set up virtual variables HYCZ and LRLRL to divide the industry into growth industry and recession industry, high profit industry and low profit industry. The two virtual variables are incorporated into the multivariate linear regression model to study the effect of industry properties on cash dividend distribution. The final empirical results show that most variables have passed the significance test. Earnings per share, operating cash flow per share, shareholding ratio of the largest shareholders, executive compensation, and number of reports have a significant positive impact on cash dividends per share, while undistributed profits per share, asset-liability ratio, Main business revenue growth has a significant negative impact on cash dividends per share. The innovation of this paper is to incorporate the credit environment faced by listed companies into the research model. Previous studies mainly focus on the internal factors of listed companies on the distribution of cash dividend. This paper extends the perspective of the research, taking the amount of research reports and the scale of credit as external variables into the research model. The final report quantity passed the significance test and had a significant positive effect on the cash dividend per share, while the credit scale variable did not pass the significance test. The author hopes to further study and select more suitable indicators for further research.
【學位授予單位】：南京師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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