發(fā)布時間：2018-02-11 04:32

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣國際化 匯率 SDR　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來,為順應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化發(fā)展趨勢,我國不斷擴(kuò)大對外開放,積極與世界各國展開多方位的經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融合作。隨著對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,人民幣在國際社會上的流動性也不斷提高。2009年7月,我國正式啟動跨境人民幣結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)試點(diǎn),人民幣國際化進(jìn)程由此開啟,之后進(jìn)入快速發(fā)展期。2016年10月1日,人民幣被正式納入SDR貨幣籃子,國際化程度進(jìn)一步提升。與此同時,在國際化進(jìn)程中,面對更為開放的國際市場,人民幣匯率波動幅度不斷擴(kuò)大,對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響日益增強(qiáng)。因此,明確國際化進(jìn)程中匯率的影響因素以便更好地對其進(jìn)行管理,對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要�；�于此,本文從傳統(tǒng)匯率理論出發(fā),首先分析了當(dāng)前人民幣國際化進(jìn)展?fàn)顩r及匯率波動特點(diǎn)。然后根據(jù)外匯供求影響匯率,分別從國際收支、資本市場、國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)三大方面分析了國際化進(jìn)程中匯率的影響因素。主要包括跨境人民幣結(jié)算、直接投資、境內(nèi)外利差等。之后采用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)就其對匯率的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。同時,對于人民幣加入SDR這一事件,本文采用事件研究法,實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了其對匯率的影響程度。研究結(jié)果表明,在人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中,跨境人民幣結(jié)算規(guī)模、外商直接投資、境內(nèi)外利差是導(dǎo)致人民幣升值的主要原因,而貨幣供應(yīng)量、央行外匯占款增加則是引起人民幣貶值的主要因素。此外,人民幣加入SDR后,短期內(nèi)這一事件并未引起匯率大幅波動,但隨著事件窗的擴(kuò)大,影響力不斷加強(qiáng)。最后,基于研究所得結(jié)論,本文對人民幣國際化背景下的匯率管理提出了一些政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, in order to conform to the trend of economic globalization, our country has continuously expanded its opening to the outside world, and has been actively engaged in multi-faceted economic and financial cooperation with other countries in the world. With the development of foreign trade, The liquidity of RMB in the international community is also increasing. In July 2009, China officially launched the cross-border RMB settlement business pilot project, which led to the beginning of the RMB internationalization process, and then entered a period of rapid development. On October 1st 2016, The RMB was formally included in the SDR currency basket, and the degree of internationalization was further enhanced. At the same time, in the process of internationalization, in the face of a more open international market, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated continuously. Therefore, it is very important for China's economic development to make clear the influence factors of exchange rate in the process of internationalization in order to manage it better. Based on this, this paper starts from the traditional exchange rate theory. This paper first analyzes the current progress of RMB internationalization and the characteristics of exchange rate fluctuations. Then, according to the influence of foreign exchange supply and demand on the exchange rate, from the balance of payments and capital markets, This paper analyzes the influencing factors of exchange rate in the process of internationalization in three aspects of domestic economy, including cross-border RMB settlement, direct investment, domestic and foreign interest margin, etc. For the event of RMB entry into SDR, this paper uses event study method to empirically test its influence on exchange rate. The results show that, in the process of RMB internationalization, cross-border RMB settlement scale, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates is the main reason for the appreciation of the RMB, while the increase in the money supply and the increase in the central bank's foreign exchange account is the main factor leading to the depreciation of the RMB. In addition, after the RMB joins the SDR, In the short term, this event does not cause the exchange rate to fluctuate significantly, but with the expansion of the event window, the influence is constantly strengthened. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the exchange rate management under the background of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1502211