發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-11 15:18

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 金融穩(wěn)定 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 區(qū)制關(guān)聯(lián)性 馬爾可夫區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換模型　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論》2016年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文基于中國(guó)2002-2014年的季度數(shù)據(jù),利用馬爾可夫區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換模型對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)制關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。結(jié)果表明,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的變化,金融穩(wěn)定與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系呈現(xiàn)出顯著的區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換特征。具體而言:在樣本考察期內(nèi),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的影響主要體現(xiàn)為前者對(duì)后者的抑制作用,而在經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇時(shí)期,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有利于促進(jìn)金融穩(wěn)定;在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇時(shí)期,金融穩(wěn)定對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有較為顯著的正向影響,而當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)處于持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期和危機(jī)時(shí)期,金融穩(wěn)定對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有負(fù)向影響。此外,相較于金融穩(wěn)定對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的影響強(qiáng)度更大、持續(xù)時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2014 in China, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between financial stability and economic growth by using Markov region transition model. The results show that, with the change of economic environment, The relationship between financial stability and economic growth shows significant regional system transformation characteristics. Specifically, during the sample period, the influence of economic growth on financial stability is mainly reflected in the former's inhibitory effect on the latter. In the period of steady economic growth and economic recovery, economic growth is conducive to promoting financial stability; during the period of economic recovery, financial stability has a significant positive impact on economic growth. When the economy is in a period of sustained and rapid growth and crisis, financial stability has a negative impact on economic growth. In addition, compared with the impact of financial stability on economic growth, economic growth has a greater impact on financial stability. It lasts longer.
【作者單位】： 南開大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F832

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