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  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 財務風險 風險預警 功效系數(shù)法　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的市場化與全球化,以及政府近幾年對中小企業(yè)的重點關(guān)注,近十年融資擔保公司在這樣的環(huán)境下迅速成長,這些快速成長的擔保公司在當前經(jīng)濟形勢下十分矚目。企業(yè)在面對難得的機會時,也避免不了同時要承擔一定的風險,擔保公司在成長中的風險問題也會逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來。財務風險是最能體現(xiàn)問題最直接的一種,如果企業(yè)不重視財務風險,忽視對其的管理及預警,后果將會很嚴重,會導致運營困難甚至破產(chǎn)倒閉。若要提前防范財務風險,就要通過建立財務風險預警系統(tǒng)以防患于未然,有助于企業(yè)盡早做出避免財務風險發(fā)生的決策。研究對象均信擔保是哈爾濱市政府參股的混合所有制擔保公司,是黑龍江省為中小企業(yè)提供金融服務的先進單位。均信擔保受內(nèi)外部因素的影響,其財務風險日益凸顯。因此,在內(nèi)憂外患的情況下,均信擔保為防范及緩解存在的風險應盡快構(gòu)建財務風險預警體系。在研究中擬建立適合均信擔保的財務風險預警系統(tǒng),在進行預警分析時采用功效系數(shù)法幫助分析財務指標。具體研究思路如下:首先對國外及國內(nèi)學者對擔保公司財務風險預警的研究現(xiàn)狀進行分析并總結(jié),介紹了擔保機構(gòu)財務風險及其財務風險預警的概念,闡述了采用功效系數(shù)法的必要性;其次,通過分析均信擔保公司當前的財務狀況及財務風險預警的管理現(xiàn)狀,提出為均信擔保財務風險構(gòu)建預警系統(tǒng)的必要性;接著,構(gòu)建預警系統(tǒng)的第一步,要先選取合適的財務指標組成財務風險預警指標體系,設(shè)置各個指標的預警區(qū)間,合成預警模型后,對均信擔保公司的財務風險預警模型進行應用,進行數(shù)據(jù)分析;最后,根據(jù)均信擔保的財務風險預警系統(tǒng)得出的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果分析其財務方面存在的隱患,對保障財務風險預警系統(tǒng)運行提出了建議,并針對緩釋內(nèi)外部財務風險提出了相應對策。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),建立均信擔保財務風險預警系統(tǒng)有助于公司預測其面臨的財務風險。利用構(gòu)建的適合均信擔保的財務風險預警系統(tǒng),可以幫助企業(yè)及時發(fā)現(xiàn)財務風險,加強對財務風險的管控,幫助均信擔保公司實現(xiàn)企業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。另外,財務風險預警系統(tǒng)不僅僅服務于管理者,均信擔保的其他利益相關(guān)者也可以從中受益,為決策提供幫助。
[Abstract]:With the marketization and globalization of the economy, and the government's focus on small and medium-sized enterprises in recent years, the financing guarantee companies have grown rapidly in such an environment in the past decade. These fast-growing guarantee companies are very attractive in the current economic situation. In the face of rare opportunities, enterprises cannot avoid taking certain risks at the same time. The growing risk problem of the guarantee company will also gradually emerge. Financial risk is the most direct kind of problem. If the enterprise does not attach importance to the financial risk and neglects its management and early warning, the consequences will be very serious. It can lead to operational difficulties and even bankruptcy. If you want to guard against financial risks in advance, you have to put in place a financial risk warning system to prevent trouble in the first place. It is helpful for enterprises to make decisions to avoid financial risks as soon as possible. It is an advanced unit in Heilongjiang Province to provide financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the influence of internal and external factors, the financial risk of the guarantee is increasingly prominent. Therefore, in the case of internal and external problems, In order to prevent and mitigate the existing risks, the early warning system of financial risk should be set up as soon as possible. In the early warning analysis, the efficiency coefficient method is used to help the analysis of financial indicators. The specific research ideas are as follows: firstly, the current research situation of financial risk early warning of guarantee companies is analyzed and summarized by foreign and domestic scholars. This paper introduces the concept of guarantee institution financial risk and its financial risk warning, expounds the necessity of adopting the efficiency coefficient method, secondly, analyzes the current financial situation and the management status of the financial risk early warning of the guarantee company. The necessity of constructing an early warning system for the guarantee of financial risk is put forward. Then, the first step of constructing the early warning system is to select the appropriate financial index to form the early warning index system of financial risk, and to set up the early warning interval of each index. After synthesizing the early warning model, the financial risk early warning model of Zhongxin guarantee company is applied to analyze the data. Finally, according to the data result of the financial risk early warning system, the hidden dangers in financial aspects are analyzed. Some suggestions are put forward to ensure the operation of the financial risk early warning system, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward to mitigate the internal and external financial risks. Establishing the financial risk early warning system can help the company forecast the financial risk it faces. Using the financial risk early warning system which is suitable for the guarantee, it can help the enterprise to discover the financial risk in time and strengthen the control of the financial risk. In addition, the early warning system of financial risk not only serves managers, but also other stakeholders can benefit from it and provide help for decision making.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.39;F830.42

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