發(fā)布時間：2018-02-28 03:42

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 私人非金融部門 杠桿率 償債負擔 宏觀經(jīng)濟波動　出處：《金融經(jīng)濟學研究》2017年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：將私人非金融部門的杠桿率和償債負擔納入同一分析框架,從理論層面分析兩者與信貸、私人支出等宏觀經(jīng)濟變量之間的短期動態(tài)和長期均衡關(guān)系;在此基礎上,通過構(gòu)建向量誤差修正模型對私人非金融部門杠桿率和償債負擔的宏觀經(jīng)濟效應進行實證分析。研究結(jié)果表明,杠桿率和償債負擔決定了宏觀經(jīng)濟變量之間的兩種長期關(guān)聯(lián);杠桿率和償債負擔對信貸增長具有顯著的負向作用,而對私人支出并無顯著的直接影響;杠桿率和償債負擔在穩(wěn)態(tài)調(diào)整過程中對其他經(jīng)濟變量產(chǎn)生的影響促使經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)趨于穩(wěn)定,但兩者對宏觀經(jīng)濟的作用機制和影響后果存在明顯差異;平均貸款利率和資產(chǎn)價格增長的內(nèi)生限制在經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定中發(fā)揮了一定的積極作用。
[Abstract]:To include leverage and debt-servicing burdens in the private non-financial sector in the same analytical framework, and to analyse, at the theoretical level, the short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium between them and macroeconomic variables such as credit, private expenditure, etc; on this basis, By constructing vector error correction model, the macroeconomic effects of leverage ratio and debt service burden in private non-financial sector are empirically analyzed. The results show that leverage ratio and debt service burden determine two long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables. Leverage ratio and debt service burden have a significant negative effect on credit growth, but have no significant direct impact on private expenditure; The influence of leverage ratio and debt service burden on other economic variables in the process of steady-state adjustment makes the economic system tend to be stable, but there are obvious differences between them on the mechanism and effect of macro-economy. The endogenous restriction of average loan interest rate and asset price growth has played a positive role in the stability of economic system.
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本文編號：1545614