發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-24 21:31

  本文選題：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)　切入點(diǎn)：先行指數(shù)　出處：《系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與數(shù)學(xué)》2017年02期

【摘要】：用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化來代表市場(chǎng)中的理性因素,用投資者情緒變化來代表市場(chǎng)中的非理性因素,研究市場(chǎng)中的理性因素和非理性因素對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)收益的影響.研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),投資者情緒的變化和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的變化都對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)收益有顯著的正向影響;宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化和投資者情緒變化對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)收益的相對(duì)作用大小也會(huì)因情緒或者經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的不同而存在差異,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化在情緒下降時(shí)期和經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)收益起主要作用,而投資者情緒變化在情緒上升時(shí)期和經(jīng)濟(jì)上行時(shí)期起主要作用,表明了市場(chǎng)上理性因素和非理性因素的力量對(duì)比會(huì)因情緒變化和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化而發(fā)生改變.我們的研究結(jié)果表明了在對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的研究中區(qū)分不同時(shí)期以及同時(shí)考慮市場(chǎng)中的理性因素和非理性因素的必要性.
[Abstract]:The rational factors in the stock market are represented by the macroeconomic changes, the irrational factors in the market are represented by the changes of investor sentiment, and the influence of the rational factors and the irrational factors in the market on the returns of the stock market is studied. The changes of investor sentiment and macroeconomic have a significant positive impact on stock market returns. The relative effects of macroeconomic changes and investor sentiment changes on stock market returns will also vary depending on mood or economic conditions. Macroeconomic changes play a major role in the stock market returns during the period of depression and economic downturn, while the changes in investor sentiment play a major role in the period of rising sentiment and the period of economic upswing. The results show that the power balance of rational and irrational factors in the market can be changed by changes in mood and macroeconomic changes. Our results show that in the stock market research, the difference between different periods and at the same time. The necessity of considering rational and irrational factors in the market.
【作者單位】： 中南大學(xué)商學(xué)院;長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;中國(guó)科學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究院管理決策與信息系統(tǒng)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(71371195,71471024,71431008,71471020)資助課題
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F832.51

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