發(fā)布時間：2018-06-12 12:48

  本文選題：服務貿易 + 旅游服務貿易��； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國旅游服務貿易得到了長足發(fā)展，已經成為我國國際服務貿易的支柱。但是近年來，作為服務貿易中重要組成部分的旅游服務貿易，外匯收入出現(xiàn)大幅逆差。我國的就業(yè)人口數(shù)量近幾年增長緩慢，增項率逐年減少。本文旨在分析旅游服務貿易貿易的就業(yè)效應。 通過對貿易學中傳統(tǒng)理論的整理與探索，為旅游服務貿易的就業(yè)效應奠定理論基礎，并運用國際經濟學的傳統(tǒng)理論構建了旅游服務貿易對就業(yè)影響的模型。通過對旅游服務貿易在進出口、就業(yè)人口和旅游相關行業(yè)收入的機理分析發(fā)現(xiàn)旅游服務貿易出口一方面通過入境旅游的直接消費增加本國消費需求，從而增加就業(yè)，另一方面增加了對本國先關產業(yè)的投資，擴大產業(yè)發(fā)展，也增加了就業(yè)。旅游服務貿易進口對本國旅游有替代效應，短期內對就業(yè)有負效應，但是在長期中對就業(yè)有利。 對旅游服務貿易的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和我國就業(yè)狀況進行了分析。認為我國旅游服務貿易對我國就業(yè)增長有一定的帶動作用，同時對我國近幾年就業(yè)增長減緩也起到一定的作用。 采用1997年～2012年旅游服務貿易的進口額、出口額、勞動工資、我國就業(yè)人口數(shù)量以及旅游業(yè)的產值作為原始數(shù)據(jù)，并用以1978年為基期的消費者價格指數(shù)對勞動工資進行平減以去除價格指數(shù)對數(shù)據(jù)的影響，得到勞動人口實際取得的真實工資。 運用多元線性回歸及誤差修正模型對我國旅游服務貿易與我國就業(yè)之間的關系進行實證分析，得出結論：長期中，旅游服務貿易的出口額和進口額每增加一個百分點，分別會帶來我過就業(yè)人口0.034808個百分點和0.005803個百分點的增長，兩者均為正向的促進作用；短期內，，旅游服務貿易的進口額和出口額對我國就業(yè)影響較小，分別為0.154246和-0.100557。旅游服務貿易的進口對全國就業(yè)增長起正向效應，旅游服務貿易出口對我國就業(yè)起到負向效應，說明短期內我國旅游服務貿易對我國就業(yè)的影響很不穩(wěn)定。同時，Granger因果檢驗的結果揭示了旅游服務貿易的進口和出口都在一定程度上構成了我國就業(yè)人口的原因所在。 最后，本文分別從政府層面、產業(yè)層面和企業(yè)層面提出了大力發(fā)展旅游服務貿易，促進就業(yè)增長的政策建議：政府層面，積極鼓勵旅游服務貿易出口，限制旅游服務貿易進口，鼓勵旅游業(yè)及其相關產業(yè)發(fā)展，提高旅游服務業(yè)及相關產業(yè)就業(yè)人口素質，大力發(fā)展展會旅游；產業(yè)層面，建立健全旅游服務產業(yè)鏈建設，建設入境旅游者服務產業(yè)，加強旅游產品開發(fā)；企業(yè)層面，提供具有國際特色的旅游服務，完善用人機制，積極加強與相關企業(yè)的合作。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's tourism service trade has developed rapidly and has become the pillar of China's international service trade. But in recent years, as an important part of service trade, foreign exchange income has a large deficit. The number of employed population in our country has been increasing slowly in recent years, and the increase rate is decreasing year by year. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the employment effect of tourism service trade. Through the collation and exploration of the traditional theories in the field of trade, this paper lays a theoretical foundation for the employment effect of tourism service trade, and constructs a model of the influence of tourism service trade on employment by using the traditional theory of international economics. By analyzing the mechanism of tourism service trade in import and export, employment population and tourism related industries, it is found that on the one hand, tourism service trade exports increase domestic consumption demand through direct consumption of inbound tourism, thereby increasing employment. On the other hand, increased investment in domestic industries, expansion of industrial development, but also increased employment. The import of tourism service trade has a substitution effect on domestic tourism, a negative effect on employment in the short term, but a favorable effect on employment in the long run. This paper analyzes the present situation of tourism service trade and the employment situation of our country. It is believed that China's tourism service trade has a certain driving effect on the employment growth in China, and it also plays a certain role in slowing down the employment growth in China in recent years. The original data are the import value, export value, labor wage, the number of employed population and the output value of tourism industry from 1997 to 2012. With the consumer price index in 1978 as the base period, the labor wage is reduced to remove the influence of the price index on the data, and the real wage of the working population is obtained. By using multiple linear regression and error correction model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism service trade and employment in China, and concludes that in the long run, the export value and import value of tourism service trade increase by one percentage point. It will bring the increase of 0.034808% and 0.005803% of our employed population respectively, both of which are positive promoters. In the short run, the import and export of tourism service trade have little effect on employment of our country, which are 0.154246 and -0.100557respectively. The import of tourism service trade has a positive effect on the employment growth of the whole country, and the export of tourism service trade has a negative effect on the employment of our country, which indicates that the impact of China's tourism service trade on China's employment is very unstable in the short term. At the same time, the Granger causality test reveals that the import and export of tourism service trade to some extent constitute the cause of employment population in China. Finally, from the government level, the industrial level and the enterprise level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to develop tourism service trade and promote employment growth. At the government level, we should actively encourage the export of tourism service trade and restrict the import of tourism service trade. To encourage the development of tourism and its related industries, to improve the quality of the employed population in the tourism service industry and related industries, to vigorously develop exhibition tourism, to establish and improve the tourism service industry chain at the industrial level, and to build up the inbound tourist service industry, Strengthen the development of tourism products, provide tourism services with international characteristics at the enterprise level, improve the employment mechanism, and actively strengthen cooperation with related enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592;F752.68;F249.2

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