關中地區(qū)干旱預警與應急水源配置研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-25 13:50
【摘要】：自古以來關中地區(qū)就是我國農(nóng)業(yè)最為發(fā)達的地區(qū)之一,在秦、漢、唐時期更是全國的政治、經(jīng)濟、文化中心,但由于地處半干旱地區(qū),屬于資源型缺水區(qū),人均占有水資源量和畝均占有水量分別只有全國平均水平的17.3%和15%。加上本地區(qū)蓄水工程較少,調蓄能力差,供水保證率低,干旱缺水嚴重,旱災十分頻繁,是制約該地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、阻礙經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、困擾人民生活的嚴重自然災害。為改變長期以來被動、盲目應對干旱災害的局面,減少干旱災害造成的損失,及時消除干旱對社會經(jīng)濟的不良影響,加強干旱預警研究,并據(jù)此對干旱的應急水源進行合理配置已成為當務之急。本文在野外調查、資料收集的基礎上,采用統(tǒng)計分析、遙感解譯、模糊分析等方法研究了關中地區(qū)的干旱特征,探索了干旱的遙感監(jiān)測方法,建立了關中地區(qū)干旱預警系統(tǒng),并制定和計算了不同干旱等級下的供用水方案和缺水量,為應急水源配置奠定了基礎,取得下述研究成果:(1)通過對關中地區(qū)降水、地表水和地下水的動態(tài)變化規(guī)律進行研究,總結分析了該地區(qū)水資源時空分布特征,對研究區(qū)水資源總量和可利用水資源量進行了評價。關中地區(qū)氣候干燥,水資源時空分布差異較大。從地理分布來看,降水由南向北、由西向東呈遞減趨勢;地表水以渭河為界,渭河以南顯著豐富于渭河以北;地下水水位受地形地貌影響,由南北山前向中部渭河逐漸減小。從時間分布來看,降雨和地表水的年內分布基本一致,降水量的60~75%、地表水徑流量的50—65%集中于汛期(6~9月)4個月,且多年來地表水來水量有衰減的趨勢。(2)運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法分析了1949年至1995年關中地區(qū)的歷史干旱資料,計算出關中地區(qū)各區(qū)縣干旱頻次,并采用K-means方法對其進行了聚類分析,繪制了關中地區(qū)干旱災害頻次分布圖。干旱頻次分析表明關中地區(qū)干旱十分頻繁,幾乎年年有旱,在統(tǒng)計的47年中,發(fā)生的小區(qū)干旱達到280次,四季中夏季發(fā)生旱災的比例最高,達到35.8%。干旱發(fā)生的空間特點為東西兩頭極重、中北部次之、中部再次之、中南部最輕。以糧食產(chǎn)量為基礎數(shù)據(jù),通過引入旱災累計程度概念,計算了各區(qū)縣20年來因旱損失程度,反映了各區(qū)縣抗旱能力的差異,繪制了關中地區(qū)各區(qū)縣旱災累計程度分布圖,展現(xiàn)了在相似氣候條件下,人類活動對于旱災結果的影響。(3)基于遙感技術的干旱監(jiān)測具有監(jiān)測尺度大、時效性強和監(jiān)測成本低廉的優(yōu)點,論文采用美國地球觀測系統(tǒng)(EOS)中分辨率成像光譜儀(MODIS)500m精度數(shù)據(jù),進行關中地區(qū)遙感干旱監(jiān)測研究。結合歸一化植被指數(shù)(NDVI)和歸一化水體指數(shù)(NDWI)的優(yōu)勢,應用歸一化干旱指數(shù)(NDDI)實現(xiàn)了對關中地區(qū)2014年伏旱的遙感干旱監(jiān)測并進行了結果分析。并利用MODIS影像分析結果,獲得各區(qū)縣的受旱面積和受旱程度。(4)論文以模糊可變集理論為基礎,建立了關中地區(qū)干旱預警系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)綜合考慮了關中地區(qū)干旱災害發(fā)生頻次指標、干旱災害程度累計指標、連續(xù)無雨天數(shù)指標和MODIS遙感干旱監(jiān)測等級指標,通過分析各指標的閾值,構建標準矩陣和可變區(qū)間矩陣,實現(xiàn)了不同層次、不同緯度影響因素的標準化考量和綜合評估,完成對關中地區(qū)的干旱狀態(tài)評價,并根據(jù)評估結果發(fā)布相應的干旱預警警報。(5)以行政區(qū)縣為單位,綜合考慮當?shù)厮O施、水源儲備情況和用水情況,逐月分析了各地區(qū)水資源供需矛盾。結合多年降雨數(shù)據(jù)和渭河來水超越機率,計算出不同來水頻率下各區(qū)縣的逐月可供水量和不同來水頻率下的缺水量,并提出了重旱和極旱狀態(tài)下的供用水方案,為決策者在不同預警級別下做出正確決策提供了科學依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, Guanzhong area is one of the most developed areas of agriculture in China. In the period of Qin, Han and Tang Dynasties, it was the political, economic and cultural center of the whole country. But because of the semi arid area, it belongs to the resource based water shortage area. The per capita amount of water resources and the average amount of water per mu is only 17.3% of the national average and 15%. plus the water storage in the region. Less engineering, poor storage capacity, low water supply guarantee rate, serious drought shortage and frequent drought is a serious natural disaster that restricts the agricultural production, hinders economic development and plagued the people's life. In this paper, on the basis of field investigation and data collection, the characteristics of drought in Guanzhong area are studied by means of statistical analysis, remote sensing interpretation and fuzzy analysis on the basis of field investigation and data collection, and the methods of remote sensing monitoring for drought are explored. The drought warning system in Guanzhong area was established, and the water supply scheme and water shortage under different drought levels were formulated and calculated, which laid the foundation for the allocation of emergency water sources. The following achievements were obtained: (1) through the study of the dynamic changes of the precipitation, surface water and groundwater in Guanzhong area, the water resources in this area were summarized and analyzed. The distribution characteristics of water resources and the amount of available water resources in the study area are evaluated. In Guanzhong area, the climate is dry and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is different. From the geographical distribution, the precipitation is from the south to the north and from the west to the East, the surface water is bounded by Weihe, and the south of Weihe is rich in the north of Weihe; the groundwater level is affected by the topography. The effect of geomorphology is gradually reduced from the north and South Mountains to the central Weihe. From the time distribution, the annual distribution of rainfall and surface water is basically the same, the 60~75% of the precipitation and the 50 - 65% of the surface water flow are concentrated in the flood season (6~9 month) 4 months, and the water quantity of the surface water has a declining trend for many years. (2) the analysis of 1949 to 1 by mathematical statistics method The drought data of 995 years in Guanzhong area have been calculated and the frequency of drought in each district and county in Guanzhong area is calculated. The frequency distribution map of drought disaster in Guanzhong area is drawn by K-means method. The drought frequency analysis shows that the drought is very frequent in Guanzhong area and almost annual drought. In the 47 year of statistics, the drought area is drought. 280 times, the proportion of drought in the summer is the highest in the four seasons. The spatial characteristics of the drought in 35.8%. are the most heavy in the East and the west, the middle north part, the middle part of the middle and the middle south, the lightest in the middle and south parts. The drought damage degree in each district and county is calculated by introducing the concept of the cumulative degree of drought disaster and reflecting the county and county resistance. The difference of drought ability, drawing the distribution map of drought accumulative degree in each district and county in Guanzhong area, showing the influence of human activities on the drought results under similar climate conditions. (3) the drought monitoring based on remote sensing technology has the advantages of large monitoring scale, strong timeliness and low monitoring cost. The thesis adopts the American earth observation system (EOS). The remote sensing drought monitoring in Guanzhong area is studied by MODIS (500m) accuracy data. Combined with the advantages of the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized water index (NDWI), the normalized drought index (NDDI) was applied to the remote sensing drought monitoring of the 2014 drought in Guanzhong area and the results were analyzed. And the MODIS image was used. On the basis of fuzzy variable set theory, the drought early-warning system in Guanzhong area is established on the basis of the fuzzy variable set theory. The system comprehensively considers the frequency index of drought disaster in Guanzhong area, the accumulative index of drought disaster degree, continuous no rain days index and MODIS remote sensing drought monitoring grade. Standard, the standard matrix and variable interval matrix are constructed by analyzing the threshold of each index, the standardization and comprehensive evaluation of different levels, different latitude factors are realized, the drought status in Guanzhong area is evaluated, and the corresponding warning warning is issued according to the evaluation results. (5) taking the administrative district as the unit, considering the local area. The contradiction between water supply and demand of water resources in various regions was analyzed month by month in water conservancy facilities, water source reserve and water use. The monthly water supply quantity and water shortage under different water frequency in different districts and counties under different frequency of rainfall were calculated. The water supply scheme under heavy drought and extreme drought condition was put forward. It provides a scientific basis for decision-makers to make correct decisions at different warning levels.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P426.616;TV213.4
本文編號：2144018
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, Guanzhong area is one of the most developed areas of agriculture in China. In the period of Qin, Han and Tang Dynasties, it was the political, economic and cultural center of the whole country. But because of the semi arid area, it belongs to the resource based water shortage area. The per capita amount of water resources and the average amount of water per mu is only 17.3% of the national average and 15%. plus the water storage in the region. Less engineering, poor storage capacity, low water supply guarantee rate, serious drought shortage and frequent drought is a serious natural disaster that restricts the agricultural production, hinders economic development and plagued the people's life. In this paper, on the basis of field investigation and data collection, the characteristics of drought in Guanzhong area are studied by means of statistical analysis, remote sensing interpretation and fuzzy analysis on the basis of field investigation and data collection, and the methods of remote sensing monitoring for drought are explored. The drought warning system in Guanzhong area was established, and the water supply scheme and water shortage under different drought levels were formulated and calculated, which laid the foundation for the allocation of emergency water sources. The following achievements were obtained: (1) through the study of the dynamic changes of the precipitation, surface water and groundwater in Guanzhong area, the water resources in this area were summarized and analyzed. The distribution characteristics of water resources and the amount of available water resources in the study area are evaluated. In Guanzhong area, the climate is dry and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is different. From the geographical distribution, the precipitation is from the south to the north and from the west to the East, the surface water is bounded by Weihe, and the south of Weihe is rich in the north of Weihe; the groundwater level is affected by the topography. The effect of geomorphology is gradually reduced from the north and South Mountains to the central Weihe. From the time distribution, the annual distribution of rainfall and surface water is basically the same, the 60~75% of the precipitation and the 50 - 65% of the surface water flow are concentrated in the flood season (6~9 month) 4 months, and the water quantity of the surface water has a declining trend for many years. (2) the analysis of 1949 to 1 by mathematical statistics method The drought data of 995 years in Guanzhong area have been calculated and the frequency of drought in each district and county in Guanzhong area is calculated. The frequency distribution map of drought disaster in Guanzhong area is drawn by K-means method. The drought frequency analysis shows that the drought is very frequent in Guanzhong area and almost annual drought. In the 47 year of statistics, the drought area is drought. 280 times, the proportion of drought in the summer is the highest in the four seasons. The spatial characteristics of the drought in 35.8%. are the most heavy in the East and the west, the middle north part, the middle part of the middle and the middle south, the lightest in the middle and south parts. The drought damage degree in each district and county is calculated by introducing the concept of the cumulative degree of drought disaster and reflecting the county and county resistance. The difference of drought ability, drawing the distribution map of drought accumulative degree in each district and county in Guanzhong area, showing the influence of human activities on the drought results under similar climate conditions. (3) the drought monitoring based on remote sensing technology has the advantages of large monitoring scale, strong timeliness and low monitoring cost. The thesis adopts the American earth observation system (EOS). The remote sensing drought monitoring in Guanzhong area is studied by MODIS (500m) accuracy data. Combined with the advantages of the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized water index (NDWI), the normalized drought index (NDDI) was applied to the remote sensing drought monitoring of the 2014 drought in Guanzhong area and the results were analyzed. And the MODIS image was used. On the basis of fuzzy variable set theory, the drought early-warning system in Guanzhong area is established on the basis of the fuzzy variable set theory. The system comprehensively considers the frequency index of drought disaster in Guanzhong area, the accumulative index of drought disaster degree, continuous no rain days index and MODIS remote sensing drought monitoring grade. Standard, the standard matrix and variable interval matrix are constructed by analyzing the threshold of each index, the standardization and comprehensive evaluation of different levels, different latitude factors are realized, the drought status in Guanzhong area is evaluated, and the corresponding warning warning is issued according to the evaluation results. (5) taking the administrative district as the unit, considering the local area. The contradiction between water supply and demand of water resources in various regions was analyzed month by month in water conservancy facilities, water source reserve and water use. The monthly water supply quantity and water shortage under different water frequency in different districts and counties under different frequency of rainfall were calculated. The water supply scheme under heavy drought and extreme drought condition was put forward. It provides a scientific basis for decision-makers to make correct decisions at different warning levels.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P426.616;TV213.4
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