發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-07 09:14

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中的一個(gè)重要組成部分。改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是在一個(gè)又一個(gè)周期波動(dòng)中發(fā)展的。影響經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的因素有很多，其中固定資產(chǎn)投資的波動(dòng)發(fā)揮著重要作用。因此，研究我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與固定資產(chǎn)投資的關(guān)系具有很重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文從歷史的角度對改革開放以來我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)及各階段中固定資產(chǎn)投資概況進(jìn)行了闡述、分析，并選取1978—2011年的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對上述兩項(xiàng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。研究表明長期以來我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與固定資產(chǎn)投資存在著長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系和短期內(nèi)的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡機(jī)制。此外，通過VAR模型，本文刻畫了固定資產(chǎn)投資沖擊對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的作用大小和時(shí)間軌跡。同時(shí)，為監(jiān)控固定資產(chǎn)投資從而平抑經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)，，文章通過主成分分析法篩選了5個(gè)固定資產(chǎn)投資先行指標(biāo)，并建立了其先行合成指數(shù)。文章最后一章提出了促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與固定資產(chǎn)投資的良性互動(dòng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Business cycle theory is an important part of macroeconomic research. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is in one cycle after another in the development of fluctuations. There are many factors that affect economic fluctuation, among which the fluctuation of fixed assets investment plays an important role. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between economic cycle and fixed asset investment in China. From the historical point of view, this paper expounds the fluctuation of China's economic cycle and fixed asset investment in various stages since the reform and opening up, analyzes the situation, and selects the national economic statistical data from 1978 to 2011 to carry on the empirical research on the above two items. The study shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a short-term dynamic equilibrium mechanism between the economic cycle fluctuation and fixed asset investment in China for a long time. In addition, through the VAR model, this paper describes the impact of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuations and the time track. At the same time, in order to monitor the fixed asset investment and stabilize the economic fluctuation, this paper selects five leading indexes of fixed asset investment by principal component analysis, and establishes its antecedent composite index. In the last chapter, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the positive interaction between economy and fixed assets investment and to realize the sustained and stable economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.8

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 杜晶;固定資產(chǎn)投資周期和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究[D];東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2015年

本文編號：2403490