發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-13 10:04

  本文選題：氣候變化 + 華北平原�。� 參考：《中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源是珍貴的自然資源,同時(shí)又在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)生活的發(fā)展中發(fā)揮重要作用。其豐枯和變化不僅與地區(qū)自然地理環(huán)境有關(guān),同時(shí)也與人類活動(dòng)和氣候條件密切相關(guān)。華北平原不僅是我國(guó)的政治中心,還是重要的糧食生產(chǎn)基地,由于降水變化率大,受氣候條件影響明顯,因此,對(duì)長(zhǎng)期氣候條件下水資源的演變規(guī)律研究及發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)具有非常重要的意義。本文采用數(shù)值模擬技術(shù),對(duì)現(xiàn)狀條件下的地下水資源進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),預(yù)測(cè)了現(xiàn)狀氣候和未來(lái)不同模式的長(zhǎng)期氣候情景下地下水流場(chǎng)和動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì),分析了氣候變化對(duì)華北平原地下水流場(chǎng)和均衡的影響,同時(shí)用于分析華北平原地下水循環(huán)的響應(yīng)機(jī)制,定量分析地下水補(bǔ)排項(xiàng)的組成及其演化,進(jìn)而為華北平原地下水的可持續(xù)合理開(kāi)發(fā)利用提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本文建立了兩種不同的氣候情景,其中情景A在2011年至2020年和2021年至2050年兩個(gè)時(shí)間段氣溫分別上升1℃和2℃,降水量分別增加2%和5%;情景B在這兩個(gè)時(shí)段的氣溫分別上升2℃和3℃,降水量分別增加3%和7%。利用兩種氣候情景下華北平原地下水流數(shù)值模擬的結(jié)果,進(jìn)行水均衡分析可知,氣候情景A條件下2050年華北平原地下水總補(bǔ)給量為268.80×108m3/a,總排泄量為295.57×108m3/a,補(bǔ)排差為-26.77×108m3/a;氣候情景B條件下2050年華北平原地下水總補(bǔ)給量為273.63×108m3/a,總排泄量為301.44×108m3/a,補(bǔ)排差為-27.82×108m3/a。地下水流場(chǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,兩種氣候模式不改變淺層地下水流場(chǎng)的總體趨勢(shì),水位整體呈下降趨勢(shì),山前地區(qū)下降幅度約5~10m,部分地區(qū)地下水降落漏斗面積較2010年有所擴(kuò)大,中東部平原區(qū)水位變幅較小;氣候變化對(duì)深層地下水流場(chǎng)影響較小,深層水位下降幅度為0~5m。
[Abstract]:Water resources are precious natural resources, but also play an important role in the development of global economic and social life.It is not only related to the geographical environment, but also to human activities and climatic conditions.The North China Plain is not only the political center of our country, but also an important base for grain production.It is of great significance to study the evolution law of water resources and forecast the trend of water resources under long term climatic conditions.In this paper, the groundwater resources under the present condition are evaluated by numerical simulation technology, and the groundwater flow field and the dynamic change trend of the groundwater flow field under the long-term climate scenarios of different climate models in the future are forecasted.The effects of climate change on groundwater flow field and equilibrium in North China Plain are analyzed, and the response mechanism of groundwater circulation in North China Plain is analyzed, and the composition and evolution of groundwater recharge and drainage are quantitatively analyzed.It provides scientific basis for the sustainable and rational development and utilization of groundwater in North China Plain.In this paper, two different climate scenarios are established, in which scenario A increases the temperature by 1 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：1744020