發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-14 15:16

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：海底管道溢油風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系的研究　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海底管道 溢油風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 多級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià) 故障樹分析法 定性分析 定量分析 溢油量 管道腐蝕

【摘要】：管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)自上世界70年代起發(fā)展至今,逐漸經(jīng)歷了從定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法到定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法的轉(zhuǎn)變過程。管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)在陸上管道的應(yīng)用中已經(jīng)取得了一定的成績(jī),然而在海上管道的應(yīng)用中研究還相對(duì)較少。本文在借鑒國(guó)外管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)際的海底管道運(yùn)行狀況和環(huán)境條件,建立了一套海底管道溢油風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法。首先進(jìn)行了危害辨識(shí),建立了海底管道溢油事故的故障樹分析模型,在此基礎(chǔ)之上,結(jié)合多級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)評(píng)價(jià)方法,建立了海底管道溢油風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系。(1)海底管道溢油可能性指標(biāo)體系將腐蝕、第三方破壞、自然力、疲勞、誤操作作為第一級(jí)指標(biāo),并逐層建立了二級(jí)、三級(jí)指標(biāo)體系。在溢油后果指標(biāo)體系中,將介質(zhì)危害和后果控制作為一級(jí)指標(biāo),向下建立了二級(jí)、三級(jí)指標(biāo)體系。(2)運(yùn)用層次分析法確定各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,采用專家意見法確定模糊關(guān)系矩陣。應(yīng)用多級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,最終關(guān)于可能性和后果均能得到一個(gè)0～100的得分。分?jǐn)?shù)越高表明風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大,并根據(jù)其在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣中的位置判斷其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是否可接受。(3)分別針對(duì)輸油、輸氣和混輸管道,對(duì)海底管道的溢油量算法進(jìn)行了研究。為了使溢油后果指標(biāo)體系中的溢油量指標(biāo)同時(shí)體現(xiàn)五大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的影響,提出了綜合溢油量的概念。(4)對(duì)管道定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了初探,研究了海底管道在腐蝕情況下,溢油概率的計(jì)算。內(nèi)腐蝕深度采用了SwRI模型,內(nèi)腐蝕長(zhǎng)度認(rèn)為是服從Weibull分布的隨機(jī)變量。而外腐蝕深度和長(zhǎng)度均被認(rèn)為是服從Weibull分布的隨機(jī)變量。分別用不同的爆破壓力模型計(jì)算了溢油概率的大小。
[Abstract]:The pipeline risk assessment technology since 70s world development has experienced a gradual transition from the qualitative risk assessment method to the quantitative risk evaluation method. Some achievements have been made in the application of pipeline risk assessment of onshore pipeline, but its application in offshore pipeline in the study is relatively small. This paper based on abroad the pipeline risk assessment on the successful experience, combined with China's actual pipeline operation status and environmental conditions, methods to establish a set of submarine pipeline oil spill risk assessment. Firstly, the hazard identification, fault tree is established for submarine pipeline oil spill accident analysis model, on this basis, combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation evaluation method, a submarine pipeline oil spill risk evaluation system. (1) submarine pipeline oil spill probability index system corrosion, third party damage, natural force, fatigue, misoperation. As the first level index, and layer set up two level, three level index system. The index system of oil spill consequences, will harm and control as a consequence of the medium level indicators, down to set up two level, three level index system. (2) use the AHP method to determine the weight of each index by expert opinion method to determine the fuzzy relation matrix. The application of multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, finally on the possibility and consequences are able to get a 0 to 100 score. Higher scores indicated greater risk, and judge whether the risk is acceptable according to its position in the risk matrix. (3) respectively for oil, gas pipeline pipeline and oil spill volume, algorithm of submarine pipeline was studied. In order to make oil spill consequences in the index system of oil spill volume indicators also reflect the five risk sources, and put forward a comprehensive concept of the amount of oil spill. (4) of the pipeline quantitative risk in the study of. The submarine pipeline corrosion in case of overflow probability. In the calculation of oil corrosion depth using the SwRI mode, the internal corrosion length is assumed to be a random variable Weibull distribution. The outer corrosion depth and length are considered a random variable Weibull distribution respectively. Oil spill probability was calculated by the different blasting pressure model.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P756.2;X55;X82

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