發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-11 12:05

  本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 + 粗糙集理論　； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化的發(fā)展，危險(xiǎn)品的生產(chǎn)量和運(yùn)輸量與年俱增，對人類安全健康和自然環(huán)境的危害正在逐步擴(kuò)大和加深。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，我國95％以上的危險(xiǎn)品涉及異地運(yùn)輸問題，其中82％左右是通過道路運(yùn)輸?shù)�，年運(yùn)輸量達(dá)2億噸左右。近年來危險(xiǎn)品事故頻發(fā)，后果極其嚴(yán)重，這是因?yàn)槲ｋU(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸量逐年增加，運(yùn)輸管理不能適應(yīng)如此大量的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸。危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸是關(guān)系到國民生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全的大問題，基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的路徑優(yōu)化可降低危險(xiǎn)品道路運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為管理部門以及運(yùn)輸企業(yè)提供相應(yīng)的決策支持，已達(dá)到降低運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的。 本文首先概述了國內(nèi)外危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸管理情況，危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與路徑優(yōu)化的研究情況，發(fā)展趨勢以及存在的主要問題；經(jīng)過分析200起具有代表性的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸案例，得出危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸事故的一般特性并對危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸事故致因進(jìn)行研究，明確運(yùn)輸事故發(fā)生的原因，并用粗糙集理論對影響因素的屬性重要度進(jìn)行排序，識(shí)別影響危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸?shù)闹饕�因素與次要因素；構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與流程，從事故率與事故后果兩個(gè)方面對運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評價(jià)，構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)模型；針對危險(xiǎn)品回收問題，將危險(xiǎn)品回收時(shí)間窗約束引入到模型中，建立了同時(shí)考慮時(shí)間與運(yùn)輸成本的多目標(biāo)VRPTW模型，通過對四種啟發(fā)式算法做比較，基于遺傳算法求在求解VRP問題上的優(yōu)勢，利用遺傳算法解出模型的帕累托最優(yōu)解，為危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸選線作參考；最后，本文提出了危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制流程，，危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制技術(shù)手段，針對人，車，物，環(huán)境以及管理這五個(gè)方面，給出了具體的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對策。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization, the production and transportation of dangerous goods increase with each year, and the harm to human safety and natural environment is gradually expanding and deepening.According to statistics, more than 95% of the dangerous goods in China are related to the transportation of different places, of which 82% are transported by road, and the annual transportation volume is about 200 million tons.In recent years, dangerous goods accidents occur frequently, the consequences are extremely serious, this is because the volume of dangerous goods transport increases year by year, transportation management can not adapt to such a large number of dangerous goods transport.Dangerous goods transportation is a major problem related to the safety of national life and property. The route optimization based on risk analysis can reduce the risk of road transportation of dangerous goods and provide corresponding decision support for management departments and transportation enterprises.The aim of reducing transport risks has been achieved.This paper first summarizes the management of dangerous goods transportation at home and abroad, the research situation of risk analysis and route optimization of dangerous goods transportation, the development trend and the main problems, and analyzes 200 representative cases of dangerous goods transportation.The general characteristics of dangerous goods transportation accidents are obtained, and the causes of dangerous goods transportation accidents are studied, and the causes of transportation accidents are clarified, and the importance of the factors is sorted by rough set theory.Identify the main factors and secondary factors that affect the transportation of dangerous goods, construct the risk evaluation standard and process, evaluate the transportation risk from accident rate and accident consequence, construct the risk evaluation model, and aim at the problem of dangerous goods recovery,The time window constraint of dangerous goods recovery is introduced into the model, and a multi-objective VRPTW model considering both time and transportation cost is established. By comparing four heuristic algorithms, the advantages of solving VRP problem based on genetic algorithm are obtained.Using genetic algorithm to solve the model of Pareto optimal solution for dangerous goods transportation route selection for reference. Finally, this paper proposed the dangerous goods transport risk control process, dangerous goods transport risk control technology means, aimed at people, cars, objects,The environment and management of the five aspects, the specific transport of dangerous goods risk control countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U492.22;U492.81

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