本文關鍵詞：上海市交通能源消費碳排放的測算與分解分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

上海市交通能源消費碳排放的測算與分解分析

Measurement and Decomposition Analysis on Carbon Emissions of Transportation Industry in Shanghai

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WU Kai - ya, HE Cai - hong, WANG Gui - xin, ZHANG Hao（ 1. National Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

[1]復旦大學公共管理與公共政策創(chuàng)新基地,中國上海200433; [2]合肥工業(yè)大學資源與環(huán)境工程學院,中國安徽合肥230009; [3]復旦大學人口研究所,中國上海200433; [4]復旦大學環(huán)境科學系,中國上海200433

文章摘要：依據(jù)IPCC清單指南報告，以能源消耗為對象，測算2000-2010年上海市交通運輸業(yè)能源消費碳排放量、人均碳排放量以及碳排放強度的變化趨勢。以2000年為基年，采用LMDI分解方法，，對上海市交通運輸領域能源消費碳排量的變化進行分解分析。結果表明：①交通碳排放強度整體呈下降趨勢，其中能源強度的下降起主要作用。能源結構對促進碳排放強度的下降作用較弱，但有增強趨勢。②交通碳排放量不斷增加。其中人口數(shù)量和人均GDP始終表現(xiàn)為正效應，起促進作用；能源強度除2004年外均表現(xiàn)為負效應，起抑制作用；能源結構始終表現(xiàn)為負效應，對減少碳排放有重要作用。

Abstr：On the basis of the statistical data of the IPCC reports, the paper calculates the carbon emissions from the transportation industry in Shanghai during 2000-2010, and then analyzes the tendency for the changes of carbon emissions per capita and carbon emission intensity. Taking 2000 as the base year, using LMDI decomposition method, the change of carbon emissions from traffic energy consumption has been decomposed. The results show： （1） The carbon emission intensity from traffic energy decreased, with energy intensity playing a major role. The effect of energy structure to the promotion of reducing carbon emission intensity was weak, but it appeared increasing trend. （2） Traffic carbon emissions increased year by year. The resident population and per capita GDP had promoting effects on increasing traffic carbon emissions, always producing positive effect. Except 2004, energy intensity always had negative effect. Energy structure always produced negative effect, having an important role for reducing carbon emissions.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:transportation industry carbon emissions LMDI model decomposition analysis Shanghai

課題項目：國家社會科學基金重大項目（10ZD＆032）;國家自然科學基金項目（71173047）;教育部人文社會科學研究規(guī)劃基金項目（09YJA790045）

  本文關鍵詞：上海市交通能源消費碳排放的測算與分解分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。