發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-26 14:04

【摘要】：影響管道可靠性的因素眾多,為了研究第三方損壞因素對管道可靠性的影響規(guī)律,結(jié)合管道遭受第三方損壞活動沖擊概率和沖擊力作用下管道失效概率2個(gè)方面,建立了定量計(jì)算模型。采用故障樹分析方法,建立了管道第三方損壞故障樹,確定影響第三方損壞活動因素的類型及邏輯計(jì)算關(guān)系,研究了故障樹中基本事件概率取值方法,從而可計(jì)算管道遭受第三方損壞活動沖擊的概率。在第三方損壞沖擊力作用下,管道本身材料強(qiáng)度產(chǎn)生抗力,基于沖擊力和抗力的相互作用,研究了穿刺失效模型和凹陷-劃傷失效模型,確定了2個(gè)模型的極限狀態(tài)方程,可定量計(jì)算第三方損壞對管道可靠性的影響程度。以中國某天然氣管道為例,收集計(jì)算所需參數(shù)因子,計(jì)算了第三方損壞導(dǎo)致管道失效概率值。
[Abstract]:There are many factors affecting pipeline reliability. In order to study the influence of third-party damage factors on pipeline reliability, combined with the impact probability of pipeline damage and failure probability of pipeline under the action of impact force. A quantitative calculation model is established. In this paper, the fault tree of pipeline third party damage is established by using fault tree analysis method, the types of factors influencing the third party damage activity and the logical calculation relation are determined, and the method of selecting the probability of the basic event in the fault tree is studied. Thus, the probability of pipeline being attacked by third party damage can be calculated. Under the action of the third party damage impact force, the material strength of the pipeline produces resistance. Based on the interaction of impact force and resistance, the puncture failure model and the sag-scratch failure model are studied, and the limit state equations of the two models are determined. The influence of third party damage on pipeline reliability can be calculated quantitatively. Taking a natural gas pipeline in China as an example, the required parameters are collected and calculated, and the failure probability of pipeline caused by third party damage is calculated.
【作者單位】： 中國石油管道科技研究中心/油氣管道輸送安全國家工程實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中國石油天然氣管道局工程有限公司維搶修分公司;中國石油管道公司;
【基金】：中國石油集團(tuán)公司科研項(xiàng)目“大型天然氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)可靠性研究”,2014B-3411
【分類號】：TE973

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