發(fā)布時間：2018-04-09 06:05

  本文選題：固體排放　切入點：公共健康　出處：《林業(yè)科學》2017年08期

【摘要】：【目的】以森林吸收煙粉塵為例,實證檢驗煙粉塵對居民呼吸系統(tǒng)相關疾病的影響,定量分析空氣污染與公共健康的關系�！痉椒ā渴紫�,沿用文獻回顧闡述大氣污染引發(fā)呼吸系統(tǒng)相關疾病,森林可以通過減少空氣污染物來影響人體健康的相關研究;其次,基于我國30個省(市、區(qū))7年的面板數(shù)據(jù),分別通過最小二乘法(OLS)、面板模型、3SLS估計煙粉塵對公共健康的影響;第三,著重采用3SLS方法克服顆粒物排放的內(nèi)生性問題,從而更加準確地評價環(huán)境污染對公共健康的負面影響,有效解釋地區(qū)間健康水平異質(zhì)性;第四,采用不同排放物作為工具變量對估計結(jié)果進行穩(wěn)健性檢驗,以保證結(jié)論的可信度�！窘Y(jié)果】1)OLS估計顯示,煙粉塵對公共健康的影響非常顯著,煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,萬人中死于肺癌和呼吸性疾病的人數(shù)相應增加0.568%和0.488%。2)隨機效應模型(RE)估計顯示,煙粉塵對肺癌死亡人數(shù)的顯著性水平有所降低,在10%水平下顯著為正,對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病的死亡人數(shù)影響非常顯著,煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,二者死亡人數(shù)分別增加0.207%和0.467%。3)采用外生的病蟲害發(fā)生面積作為森林面積的工具變量來解決煙粉塵排放的內(nèi)生性問題。基于工具變量的三階段最小二乘估計(3SLS)顯示,森林面積顯著影響煙粉塵排放水平,森林面積每增加1%,煙粉塵排放量大約降低0.884%;煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,萬人中死于肺癌人數(shù)將增加0.777%,死于呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病的人數(shù)將增加0.704%,并且均高于用OLS、隨機效應模型估計出的值,說明后2種方法會低估空氣污染對公共健康的影響。4)人均GDP和人口密度正向作用于居民公共健康水平,人均醫(yī)療支出對居民公共健康水平在1%水平下顯著為負,即人均醫(yī)療支出每增加1%,萬人中肺癌及呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡人數(shù)將分別降低0.362%和0.543%�！窘Y(jié)論】鑒于森林通過吸收煙粉塵可提高公共健康水平,為了進一步提高公共健康水平,除了通過法律和強制措施從源頭治理污染外,還需要大力提倡植樹造林、提高森林覆蓋率、擴大煙粉塵吸收能力強的樹種面積、有效提高病蟲害防治水平等。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the effect of smoke dust on respiratory diseases and analyze the relationship between air pollution and public health.Following the review of the literature on respiratory system related diseases caused by air pollution, forest can affect human health by reducing air pollutants. Secondly, based on panel data from 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in China for 7 years,The least square method and panel model are used to estimate the impact of smoke dust on public health. Thirdly, the 3SLS method is used to overcome the endogenetic problem of particulate matter emissions, so as to evaluate the negative effects of environmental pollution on public health more accurately.It can effectively explain the heterogeneity of health level among different regions. Fourthly, we use different emissions as tool variables to test the robustness of the estimated results to ensure the reliability of the conclusions. [results] 1)OLS estimates show that,The impact of smoke dust on public health is very significant. For every 1 percent increase in smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases in thousands of people increases correspondingly by 0.568% and 0.4880.2.) Stochastic effect model REE estimates show that,Smoke dust had a significant effect on the death toll of lung cancer, which was significantly positive at 10% level, and had a significant effect on the death toll of respiratory diseases.For each increase of smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths increased by 0.207% and 0.467.3 respectively) the exogenous pest and disease occurrence area was used as the tool variable of forest area to solve the endogenous problem of smoke dust emission.The three-stage least squares estimation based on tool variables showed that forest area significantly affected the emission level of smoke dust.For every increase in forest area, the emission of smoke dust will be reduced by approximately 0.8844.When the discharge of smoke dust increases by 1 percent, the number of deaths from lung cancer among 10,000 people will increase by 0.77777, and the number of deaths from respiratory diseases will increase by 0.7044.It will be higher than the values estimated by the OLS- random effect model.The latter two methods can underestimate the impact of air pollution on public health. 4) the per capita GDP and population density positively affect the public health level of residents, and the per capita medical expenditure is significantly negative at the level of 1% of the residents' public health.That is, for every increase in per capita medical expenditure, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases will be reduced by 0.362% and 0.543% respectively among the ten thousand people. [conclusion] in view of the fact that forests can raise the level of public health by absorbing smoke and dust, in order to further improve the level of public health,In addition to controlling pollution from the source through laws and compulsory measures, it is necessary to promote afforestation, increase forest coverage, expand the area of tree species with strong dust absorption capacity, and effectively improve the level of pest and disease control.
【作者單位】： 中國林業(yè)科學研究院林業(yè)科技信息研究所;
【基金】：浙江省省院合作林業(yè)科技項目“森林療養(yǎng)基地認證標準與指標體系研究”(2016SY17) 中央級公益性科研院所基本科研業(yè)務費專項資金資助項目(CAFYBB2017QA020)
【分類號】：R122

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