發(fā)布時間：2019-06-07 16:21

【摘要】：隨著國民經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,國內(nèi)大型活動的舉行數(shù)量日趨增多,致使在有限的公共空間中人群活動的頻度和密度極度增長,從而使由人群膨脹聚集導致的踩踏事故風險概率大為提高。目前對大型活動踩踏事故的研究缺乏對其自身危險性的有效評價,安全風險控制尚無成熟的理論方法,現(xiàn)有理論模型和方法缺乏通用性。因而,建立一套適用于大型活動風險評價指標體系和風險評價模型顯得尤為重要。本文基于風險危機管理的視角,通過對中外大型活動踩踏致因的剖析和歸結,從大型活動場所的設施設備風險、人群因素和構建物設計風險、外部環(huán)境因素等方面分析其踩踏事故的原因,著重強調(diào)預防及控制踩踏事故的關鍵是提高安全管理水平,加強人群的安全疏導和教育等。本文通過案例分析法,借鑒現(xiàn)有學者的踩踏事故指標體系研究成果,并引入事故樹法,追蹤大型活動踩踏事故的致因規(guī)律,構建了大型活動踩踏事故樹。針對踩踏事故風險中傳統(tǒng)數(shù)學模型難以量化的難題,通過構建大型活動踩踏事故風險評價指標體系,在綜合權衡其他各種安全評價方法優(yōu)劣的基礎上,提出了適合大型活動踩踏事故風險安全評價方法——突變級數(shù)法,并對大型活動踩踏事故風險進行測評,得到的量化評估值與實際情況吻合。實例驗證表明,本文所構建的指標體系和所采用的評估方法可以很好的解決踩踏事故危害評估難題,為防患踩踏事故風險給予可靠的理論和方法支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the number of large-scale activities in China is increasing day by day, resulting in the extreme increase in the frequency and density of crowd activities in the limited public space. As a result, the risk probability of stampede accident caused by crowd expansion and aggregation is greatly increased. At present, the research on stampede accident of large-scale activities is lack of effective evaluation of its own risk, there is no mature theoretical method of safety risk control, and the existing theoretical models and methods are lack of generality. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish a set of risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model suitable for large-scale activities. Based on the perspective of risk crisis management, this paper analyzes and sums up the causes of stampede in large-scale activities at home and abroad, from the facilities and equipment risks, crowd factors and construction design risks of large-scale event places. The causes of stampede accident are analyzed from the aspects of external environmental factors, and it is emphasized that the key to prevent and control stampede accident is to improve the level of safety management and strengthen the safety guidance and education of the crowd. Through the case analysis method, this paper draws lessons from the existing scholars' research results of stampede accident index system, and introduces the accident tree method to track the cause law of stampede accident in large-scale activities, and constructs the stampede accident tree of large-scale activities. In order to solve the problem that the traditional mathematical model is difficult to quantify the risk of stampede accident, by constructing the risk evaluation index system of stampede accident in large-scale activities, on the basis of comprehensively weighing the advantages and disadvantages of other safety evaluation methods, The sudden change series method, which is suitable for the risk safety assessment of stampede accidents in large-scale activities, is put forward, and the risk of stampede accidents in large-scale activities is evaluated. The quantitative evaluation value is in good agreement with the actual situation. The example shows that the index system and the assessment method used in this paper can solve the problem of stampede hazard assessment, and give reliable theoretical and methodological support for the prevention of stampede accident risk.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：D63

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