發(fā)布時間：2018-03-04 21:39

  本文選題：政府分類支出　切入點：居民消費　出處：《湖南師范大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,尤其近十年中國經濟發(fā)生了平均10%的增長,也伴隨著居民消費占國民生產總值的比重在不斷下降,各省區(qū)市的經濟也表現出了快速增長,區(qū)域差異也相繼出現,在地里空間上表現出了相關性或差異性。2008年受全球經濟危機的影響,過去在中國經濟拉動中發(fā)揮重要作用的出口和民間投資已經明顯銳減,消費需求增長乏力。同時,2013年各地區(qū)的環(huán)境惡化,不僅影響居民生活水平的提高,而且考驗著我國政府支出對全局的考量。擴大內需,促進居民消費來拉動經濟增長是主力,近年來我國政府支出也不斷在增加,在基本建設、民生工程和行政管理支出上加大了投入力度,這樣就可以改善投資環(huán)境、消費環(huán)境和生活環(huán)境,使得私人消費和居民消費增加,促進經濟增長。本文試圖通過對政府財政支出發(fā)展現狀做深入分析,采用理論和實證研究分析中國政府支出對居民消費是怎樣影響的,這對我國財政政策具有很好的意義,同時也對刺激我國居民消費和提高居民生活質量具有實際意義。 本文利用非線性有效消費函數建立消費效用最優(yōu)模型,通過理論模型的分析得到政府的三類支出與代表性消費者的關系參數,將會對居民消費產生一定的影響。三類支出參數的動態(tài)變化會對消費產生抑制或促進作用,以及這三個參數的變化也表明了如何才能使政府支出規(guī)模達到一種最優(yōu)狀態(tài)。同時在實證分析上,采用對數模型和SVAR模型,加入產業(yè)結構和對外負債的因素來分析對消費的動態(tài)效應。首先,經驗分析得到政府基本建設支出對居民消費有一定擠出效應；民生支出對居民消費有促進作用,通過脈沖效應分析,在短期內民生支出規(guī)模的效應不太明顯；行政經費支出對居民消費在一定時期里有擠出作用；產業(yè)結構調整升級對消費有一定的正效應；還有對外負債在一定時期中對居民消費有一定的負效應。接著采用了空間面板數據來自31個省份的人均數據,樣本數據時間是從1997年到2010年,空間滯后模型(SAR模型)和空間誤差模型(SEM模型)都采用了極大似然法估計,都分別用了地區(qū)固定效應、時間固定效應和地區(qū)時間效應估計地理加權矩陣的空間面板數據模型。SAR模型中的空間滯后項、解釋變量人均收入、基本建設支出、民生支出和行政管理支出系數都顯著,表明在人均收入和政府分類支出對居民消費的影響下,居民消費支出存在著顯著的空間相關性,空間滯后項系數為負。SEM模型中的空間誤差項、解釋變量人均收入、基本建設支出、民生支出和行政管理支出系數都顯著,表明居民消費支出不僅受到了人均收入和政府分類支出的影響,而且受到相鄰省份的解釋變量人均收入、基本建設支出、民生支出和行政管理支出的影響和空間相鄰的不可觀測因素的影響。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown by an average of 10% in the past decade, and along with the decline in the proportion of residents' consumption to the gross national product, the economy of various provinces, districts, and cities has also shown rapid growth, and regional differences have also appeared one after another. In 2008, under the influence of the global economic crisis, exports and private investment, which used to play an important role in stimulating the Chinese economy, have been significantly reduced. At the same time, in 2013, the deterioration of the environment in various regions not only affected the improvement of residents' living standards, but also tested the overall consideration of our government expenditure. Expanding domestic demand and promoting residents' consumption to stimulate economic growth is the main force. In recent years, our government expenditure has also been continuously increasing. We have increased investment in capital construction, people's livelihood projects, and administrative management spending, so that we can improve the investment environment, the consumption environment and the living environment. This paper attempts to make a deep analysis of the current situation of the development of government fiscal expenditure, and use theoretical and empirical research to analyze how Chinese government expenditure affects residents' consumption. This is of great significance to our country's fiscal policy, but also to stimulating our country's residents' consumption and improving the residents' quality of life. In this paper, the nonlinear efficient consumption function is used to establish the optimal model of consumption utility. Through the analysis of the theoretical model, the relationship parameters between the three types of government expenditure and the representative consumers are obtained. The dynamic changes of three kinds of expenditure parameters will inhibit or promote consumption. And the change of these three parameters also shows how to make the scale of government expenditure reach an optimal state. At the same time, the logarithmic model and SVAR model are used in the empirical analysis. First of all, the empirical analysis shows that government capital construction expenditure has a certain crowding out effect on residents' consumption; people's livelihood expenditure can promote residents' consumption. Through the pulse effect analysis, the scale effect of the people's livelihood expenditure is not obvious in the short term, the administrative expenditure has the extrusion function to the resident consumption in a certain period, the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading has the certain positive effect to the consumption; There are also external liabilities that have a certain negative effect on residents' consumption in a certain period of time. Then we use spatial panel data from 31 provinces' data per capita. The sample data period is from 1997 to 2010. The spatial lag model (SAR model) and the spatial error model (SEM model) are both estimated by maximum likelihood method. Time fixed effect and region time effect estimate Spatial Panel data Model of Geographic weighting Matrix. Spatial lag in SAR model, explain variable per capita income, capital expenditure, people's livelihood expenditure and administrative expenditure coefficient are significant. It shows that under the influence of per capita income and government classified expenditure on residents' consumption, there is a significant spatial correlation between residents' consumption expenditure, and the coefficient of spatial lag is negative. SEM model is the spatial error term, which explains the variable per capita income. Capital construction expenditure, people's livelihood expenditure and administrative expenditure coefficient are significant, indicating that residents' consumption expenditure is not only affected by per capita income and government classified expenditure, but also by the explanatory variables of neighboring provinces, such as per capita income, capital construction expenditure, etc. The influence of people's livelihood expenditure and administrative expenditure and the unobservable factors adjacent to each other.
【學位授予單位】：湖南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F812.45

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