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遼寧沿海開(kāi)放對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響實(shí)證研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-12-27 13:45
【摘要】:由于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)具有異質(zhì)性,區(qū)域要素稟賦具有先天性與外生性,不同區(qū)域的對(duì)外開(kāi)放對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響具有其獨(dú)特性。因此,系統(tǒng)研究遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的對(duì)外開(kāi)放及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。文章的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新工作如下: 第一,對(duì)外開(kāi)放影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的原理、作用機(jī)制及政策支持。文章著重從資源與要素的優(yōu)化配置、資本技術(shù)外溢和市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力改善等方面進(jìn)行綜合分析,揭示區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的原理與作用機(jī)制。根據(jù)對(duì)外開(kāi)放的作用機(jī)制與原理,將對(duì)外開(kāi)放細(xì)分為資本開(kāi)放度、貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度、勞動(dòng)開(kāi)放度及綜合開(kāi)放度,并對(duì)不同開(kāi)放度的測(cè)度方法進(jìn)行了研究。 第二,遼寧沿海的對(duì)外開(kāi)放度的量化與測(cè)度。在開(kāi)放度量化測(cè)度的基礎(chǔ)上,借助主成分分析法及灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法對(duì)遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的對(duì)外開(kāi)放現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行定量分析。 第三,遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶開(kāi)放度對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響研究。采用兩種建模策略分別進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,一是基于柯布-道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的結(jié)構(gòu)建模策略,二是基于數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)特征與相關(guān)關(guān)系的非結(jié)構(gòu)建模;谝陨喜呗,分別構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)模型(panel data model)及向量自回歸模型(VAR),前者克服了樣本數(shù)量少、參數(shù)估計(jì)誤差較大的缺陷,而后者則便于考察經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)于開(kāi)放度變化的敏感性及動(dòng)態(tài)變化的時(shí)變路徑,其中的脈沖響應(yīng)分析為兩者之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系提供了實(shí)證依據(jù)。 第四,研究沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與開(kāi)放度之間互相預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)制。通過(guò)方差分解,研究了不同地區(qū)對(duì)外開(kāi)放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的波動(dòng)在多大程度上可以由對(duì)方來(lái)解釋。大連與營(yíng)口的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)可以由對(duì)外開(kāi)放度波動(dòng)解釋中,而對(duì)外開(kāi)放度的也可以由經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)來(lái)解釋。大連與營(yíng)口的對(duì)外開(kāi)放、經(jīng)濟(jì)之間具有相互預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)制。 第五,模擬和仿真微觀市場(chǎng)主體影響對(duì)外開(kāi)放的行為與機(jī)制。在確立對(duì)外開(kāi)放影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)基于Agent的模擬與仿真技術(shù)進(jìn)一步研究影響開(kāi)放度的微觀主體行為。對(duì)政府Agent及企業(yè)Agent進(jìn)行界定,通過(guò)一級(jí)假設(shè)(兩個(gè))與二級(jí)假設(shè)條件(六個(gè))刻畫兩個(gè)主體的行為特征,并構(gòu)建邏輯模型進(jìn)行研究。 第六,提高對(duì)外開(kāi)放水平及增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展可持續(xù)性。發(fā)揮人力資本優(yōu)勢(shì)、發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)集群、建設(shè)區(qū)域金融中心、改革財(cái)政稅收制度、加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、整合產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)資源、降低產(chǎn)業(yè)同構(gòu)性、實(shí)施有序開(kāi)放可以有效提高遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
[Abstract]:Because of the heterogeneity of regional economy, regional factor endowment is innate and exogenetic, and the influence of opening to the outside world in different regions on economy is unique. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the opening-up and economic growth of Liaoning coastal economic belt. The main innovative work of this paper is as follows: first, the principle, mechanism and policy support of opening to the outside world affect the development of regional economy. This paper focuses on the comprehensive analysis of the optimal allocation of resources and elements, capital technology spillover and the improvement of market competitiveness, in order to reveal the principle and mechanism of regional economic development. According to the mechanism and principle of opening to the outside world, the opening to the outside world is divided into capital openness, trade openness, labor openness and comprehensive openness. Second, Liaoning coastal opening-up degree of quantification and measurement. On the basis of quantitative measurement of opening degree, the present situation of opening to the outside world of Liaoning coastal economic belt is analyzed quantitatively by means of principal component analysis method and grey correlation degree method. Third, the influence of the opening degree of Liaoning coastal economic belt on regional economic growth. Two modeling strategies are used for empirical research. One is the structural modeling strategy based on Cobb-Douglas production function and the other is the unstructured modeling based on the statistical characteristics and correlation. Based on the above strategies, the panel data model (panel data model) and the vector autoregressive model (VAR),) are constructed respectively. The former overcomes the defects of small sample size and large error in parameter estimation. The latter is convenient to examine the sensitivity of economic growth to the change of openness and the time-varying path of dynamic change. The impulse response analysis provides an empirical basis for the interaction between the two. Fourth, to study the economic growth and openness of the coastal economic belt between the mutual prediction mechanism. Based on variance decomposition, this paper studies the extent to which the fluctuation of the degree of opening to the outside world and economic growth in different regions can be explained by the other side. The economic fluctuation of Dalian and Yingkou can be explained by the fluctuation of the degree of opening to the outside world, and the degree of opening to the outside world can also be explained by the fluctuation of economy. Dalian and Yingkou open to the outside world, the economy has a mutual prediction mechanism. Fifth, simulate and simulate the behavior and mechanism of micro-market agents influencing the opening-up. On the basis of establishing that the opening to the outside world affects the economic growth, the microcosmic behavior of the main body which affects the openness is further studied through the simulation and simulation technology based on Agent. The government Agent and enterprise Agent are defined. The behavioral characteristics of the two subjects are characterized by the first-order hypothesis (two) and the second-order hypothesis (six), and the logical model is constructed. Sixth, raise the level of opening to the outside world and enhance the sustainability of economic development. To give full play to the advantages of human capital, to develop industrial clusters, to build regional financial centers, to reform the financial and tax system, to strengthen infrastructure construction, to integrate the resources of industrial parks, and to reduce the industrial isomorphism. The implementation of orderly opening can effectively improve the international competitiveness of Liaoning coastal economic belt.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:遼寧工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F127;F224

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