云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的聯(lián)動(dòng)性研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-20 11:19
【摘要】：對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過程中的兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象,二者能否協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展影響著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量。東盟一直以來是云南省最大的貿(mào)易伙伴,云南省對(duì)東盟進(jìn)出口的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與云南省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是否協(xié)調(diào)直接關(guān)系到云南省未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,但近年來云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展一直不見起色,對(duì)東盟的貿(mào)易額甚至出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的局面�；谝陨媳尘�,本文重點(diǎn)研究云南省對(duì)東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)各自變動(dòng)情況,以及兩者之間的聯(lián)動(dòng)性,目的在于為有關(guān)部門調(diào)整優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)提供決策依據(jù)。 本文在梳理對(duì)外貿(mào)易理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論、對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相互作用機(jī)理理論的基礎(chǔ)上,以對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)為研究視角,協(xié)同運(yùn)用描述統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型構(gòu)建等多種分析工具,對(duì)云南省對(duì)東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系及聯(lián)動(dòng)性進(jìn)行研究。 通過研究得出以下結(jié)論：云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和東盟進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)和出口結(jié)構(gòu)之間存在長(zhǎng)期的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡關(guān)系,從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和東盟進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)和出口結(jié)構(gòu)的Granger因果關(guān)系看,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是對(duì)東盟出口結(jié)構(gòu)變化的原因,說明產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)仍然是對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的主動(dòng)力,同時(shí)云南省對(duì)東盟進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的原因,說明進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)影響了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展。從脈沖分析和方差分解的結(jié)果來看,云南省進(jìn)口商品的結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)通常滯后錯(cuò)位于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展變動(dòng),云南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)云南省對(duì)東盟進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)開始時(shí)是有負(fù)的影響作用；而出口結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的正影響作用比較明顯,且產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)出口結(jié)構(gòu)也是呈現(xiàn)出正向的影響作用,說明二者是相互促進(jìn),協(xié)同發(fā)展的。 在歸納和凝練基本結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出了如下的路徑選擇：云南省要想實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與對(duì)東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)互動(dòng)升級(jí),實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)跨越式發(fā)展,就必須改變當(dāng)前雙方僅依靠自然資源和勞動(dòng)力的簡(jiǎn)單的貿(mào)易模式,提升為依賴技術(shù)發(fā)展的創(chuàng)新型的動(dòng)態(tài)比較優(yōu)勢(shì),提高產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),實(shí)現(xiàn)落后地區(qū)跨越式發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略。文章提出了將云南作為東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)和東盟地區(qū)貿(mào)易的通道,通過進(jìn)口東部和中部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品,出口東盟國(guó)家,同時(shí)大力發(fā)展自身產(chǎn)業(yè),形成自身產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì),在吸收外來資本和技術(shù)的過程中,達(dá)到形成自身產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和東盟貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的互動(dòng)升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:The structural change of foreign trade and the change of industrial structure are two major economic phenomena in the process of regional economic growth. Whether the two can develop harmoniously affects the quality of regional economic growth. ASEAN has always been the largest trading partner in Yunnan Province. Whether the trade structure between Yunnan's imports and exports to ASEAN and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province is coordinated or not is directly related to the future economic development of Yunnan Province. However, the industrial development of Yunnan Province has not improved in recent years, and the trade volume with ASEAN has even shown negative growth. Based on the above background, this paper focuses on the changes of trade structure and industrial structure of ASEAN in Yunnan Province, as well as the linkage between them. The purpose is to provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to adjust and optimize industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure. On the basis of combing the theory of foreign trade, the theory of industrial structure and the theory of interaction mechanism between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, this paper takes the change of foreign trade structure and industrial structure as the research angle. This paper studies the relationship and linkage between ASEAN trade structure and industrial structure in Yunnan Province by means of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model construction. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure of Yunnan Province and the import structure and export structure of ASEAN. The Granger causality between the industrial structure and the ASEAN import structure and export structure is analyzed. The industrial structure is the reason for the change of the export structure to ASEAN, which shows that the industrial structure is still the main driving force for the development of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the change in the import structure of Yunnan Province to ASEAN is the reason for the change of the industrial structure. This shows that the growth of imports has affected the development of the industrial structure. From the results of pulse analysis and variance decomposition, the structural changes of Yunnan import commodities usually lag behind the development changes of industrial structure, and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has a negative effect on ASEAN import structure at the beginning. The positive effect of the export structure on the industrial structure is obvious, and the industrial structure has a positive effect on the export structure, indicating that the two promote each other and develop in a coordinated manner. On the basis of summing up and condensing the basic conclusions, this paper puts forward the following path choices: Yunnan Province wants to realize the interactive upgrading of industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. We must change the current simple trade model in which both sides rely only on natural resources and labor, upgrade it to an innovative and dynamic comparative advantage that relies on technological development, and enhance the competitive advantage of products in the international market. The strategy of realizing the leapfrog development of backward areas. This paper proposes that Yunnan should be used as a trade channel between the eastern developed regions and the ASEAN regions. By importing technology-intensive products from the eastern and central developed regions, Yunnan should be exported to ASEAN countries, and at the same time, it should vigorously develop its own industries and form its own industrial advantages. In the process of absorbing foreign capital and technology, the interactive upgrading of the industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure has been achieved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F752.8
本文編號(hào)：2411995
[Abstract]:The structural change of foreign trade and the change of industrial structure are two major economic phenomena in the process of regional economic growth. Whether the two can develop harmoniously affects the quality of regional economic growth. ASEAN has always been the largest trading partner in Yunnan Province. Whether the trade structure between Yunnan's imports and exports to ASEAN and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province is coordinated or not is directly related to the future economic development of Yunnan Province. However, the industrial development of Yunnan Province has not improved in recent years, and the trade volume with ASEAN has even shown negative growth. Based on the above background, this paper focuses on the changes of trade structure and industrial structure of ASEAN in Yunnan Province, as well as the linkage between them. The purpose is to provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to adjust and optimize industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure. On the basis of combing the theory of foreign trade, the theory of industrial structure and the theory of interaction mechanism between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, this paper takes the change of foreign trade structure and industrial structure as the research angle. This paper studies the relationship and linkage between ASEAN trade structure and industrial structure in Yunnan Province by means of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model construction. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure of Yunnan Province and the import structure and export structure of ASEAN. The Granger causality between the industrial structure and the ASEAN import structure and export structure is analyzed. The industrial structure is the reason for the change of the export structure to ASEAN, which shows that the industrial structure is still the main driving force for the development of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the change in the import structure of Yunnan Province to ASEAN is the reason for the change of the industrial structure. This shows that the growth of imports has affected the development of the industrial structure. From the results of pulse analysis and variance decomposition, the structural changes of Yunnan import commodities usually lag behind the development changes of industrial structure, and the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has a negative effect on ASEAN import structure at the beginning. The positive effect of the export structure on the industrial structure is obvious, and the industrial structure has a positive effect on the export structure, indicating that the two promote each other and develop in a coordinated manner. On the basis of summing up and condensing the basic conclusions, this paper puts forward the following path choices: Yunnan Province wants to realize the interactive upgrading of industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. We must change the current simple trade model in which both sides rely only on natural resources and labor, upgrade it to an innovative and dynamic comparative advantage that relies on technological development, and enhance the competitive advantage of products in the international market. The strategy of realizing the leapfrog development of backward areas. This paper proposes that Yunnan should be used as a trade channel between the eastern developed regions and the ASEAN regions. By importing technology-intensive products from the eastern and central developed regions, Yunnan should be exported to ASEAN countries, and at the same time, it should vigorously develop its own industries and form its own industrial advantages. In the process of absorbing foreign capital and technology, the interactive upgrading of the industrial structure and ASEAN trade structure has been achieved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F752.8
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