發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-22 16:57

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電網(wǎng)企業(yè) 運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 綜合評(píng)價(jià) Topsis 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞 粗糙集　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國電力市場(chǎng)體制改革更深層次的推進(jìn),傳統(tǒng)的“發(fā)電、輸電、配電和送電”一體化壟斷的電力經(jīng)營(yíng)模式已經(jīng)完全發(fā)生了改變。電網(wǎng)企業(yè)從以往的電力產(chǎn)業(yè)體系中分離出來,作為獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體存在。電網(wǎng)企業(yè)與發(fā)電企業(yè)、電網(wǎng)企業(yè)與電力用戶之間均以電價(jià)為紐帶,形成了電能的買賣關(guān)系。目前國內(nèi)外對(duì)于電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面的研究成果比較豐富,但大多數(shù)都是針對(duì)電力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下電網(wǎng)企業(yè)面臨的各類單獨(dú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究,而對(duì)于電網(wǎng)企業(yè)面臨的總體運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究?jī)?nèi)容比較缺乏。基于上述背景,本文對(duì)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行了深入研究,著重建立電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型與電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞模型,主要包括三個(gè)方面的內(nèi)容： 第一,分析了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特點(diǎn),著重進(jìn)行了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分類,并引入了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞理論,以此作為課題研究的基礎(chǔ)。 第二,通過對(duì)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)狀的分析,指出建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系的重要性。并構(gòu)建了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的Topsis法進(jìn)行改進(jìn),利用熵權(quán)法確定權(quán)重,從而對(duì)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)并得出量化結(jié)果,為電網(wǎng)企業(yè)從總體上掌握運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了重要的參考依據(jù)。 第三,利用粗糙集理論提出了確定電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞權(quán)重系數(shù)的方法,并基于粗糙集決策方法提取了不完備信息中電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞路徑,并通過實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:Along with our country electric power market system reform deeper level advancement, the traditional "generation, the transmission". The integrated monopoly mode of distribution and power transmission has been completely changed. The power grid enterprises have been separated from the former electric power industry system. As an independent economic entity, electricity price is the link between power grid enterprises and power generation enterprises, power grid enterprises and power users. At present, the domestic and foreign research on the operation risk of power grid enterprises is relatively rich. However, most of them are focused on all kinds of individual risks faced by power grid enterprises in the power market environment, but the research content of the overall operational risks faced by power grid enterprises is relatively lacking. Based on the above background. In this paper, the operation risk management of power grid enterprises is deeply studied, and the operation risk assessment model of power grid enterprises and the transmission model of operation risk of power grid enterprises are established, which mainly include three aspects: Firstly, this paper analyzes the operation environment and risk characteristics of power grid enterprises, emphasizes on the classification of operational risks of power grid enterprises, and introduces the transmission theory of operational risk elements of power grid enterprises, which is the basis of the research on this subject. Secondly, by analyzing the current situation of operation risk management in power grid enterprises, the importance of establishing risk management system is pointed out, and the evaluation index system of operational risk of power grid enterprises is constructed. The grey correlation degree is used to improve the traditional Topsis method, and the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight, so that the comprehensive evaluation of the operation risk of power grid enterprises is carried out and the quantitative results are obtained. It provides an important reference basis for power grid enterprises to master the operation risk on the whole. Thirdly, using rough set theory, this paper proposes a method to determine the transmission weight coefficient of grid enterprise operational risk element, and extracts the transmission path of power enterprise operation risk in incomplete information based on rough set decision method. The feasibility of the model is verified by an example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F272.3;F426.61;TM73

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