發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-07 12:04

【摘要】：針對(duì)Metric模型中假設(shè)備件需求不依賴于可用系統(tǒng)數(shù)而導(dǎo)致可用度被低估的問(wèn)題,考慮部件的休眠狀態(tài)(即故障系統(tǒng)中無(wú)故障部件不產(chǎn)生備件需求的情況),提出一種兩部件系統(tǒng)可用度馬氏建模方法。利用可用系統(tǒng)數(shù)、備件庫(kù)存以及備件短缺數(shù)描述備件狀態(tài),根據(jù)連續(xù)時(shí)間馬爾可夫鏈方法,分析不同部件的故障修復(fù)過(guò)程對(duì)狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響,構(gòu)建了兩組馬爾可夫隨機(jī)過(guò)程;隨后,分析兩種隨機(jī)過(guò)程間的聯(lián)系,將其合并后建立了備件的馬爾可夫狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移模型;進(jìn)而利用該模型求解各備件期望短缺數(shù)EBO(expected backorders)以及系統(tǒng)可用度的穩(wěn)態(tài)值與瞬時(shí)值;最后將模型應(yīng)用于數(shù)值案例,得到了比Metric模型更接近仿真值的備件期望短缺數(shù)與系統(tǒng)可用度。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the spare parts demand is not dependent on the number of available systems in the Metric model, the availability is underestimated. Considering the dormancy state of the components (that is, the fault free parts in the fault system do not produce spare parts), a Markov modeling method for the system availability of two components is proposed. According to the method of continuous time Markov chain, the influence of fault repair process of different parts on state transition is analyzed, and two groups of Markov stochastic processes are constructed. Then, the relationship between the two stochastic processes is analyzed, and the Markov state transfer model of spare parts is established, and then the expected shortage of spare parts EBO (expected backorders) and the steady-state and instantaneous values of system availability are solved by the model. Finally, the model is applied to a numerical case, and the expected shortage of spare parts and the availability of the system are obtained, which are closer to the simulation value than the Metric model.
【作者單位】： 北京航空航天大學(xué)可靠性與系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)院;中國(guó)船舶工業(yè)集團(tuán)公司系統(tǒng)工程部;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(61304148)、青年科學(xué)基金(61304148)、面上項(xiàng)目(61573041)資助
【分類號(hào)】：TH17

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