發(fā)布時間：2018-04-27 11:07

  本文選題：進出口貿易 + 外商直接投資��； 參考：《湖南大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：目前,關于中國城市化問題的研究是眾多經濟學和政策制定者所關注的焦點話題之一。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、美國經濟學家約瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨曾說,21世紀對世界影響最大的有兩件事:一是美國高科技產業(yè),二是中國的城市化。黨的十八大報告提出,堅持走中國特色新型工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農業(yè)現代化道路。在十八屆三中全會、2014年《政府工作報告》以及《國家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃(2014-2020年)》中,政府不斷強調,積極穩(wěn)妥的新型城鎮(zhèn)化是穩(wěn)定經濟增長的最大動力之一,要堅持走中國特色新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路,推進以人為核心的城鎮(zhèn)化。傳統的城市化理論認為,一個地區(qū)的城市化是國內經濟系統發(fā)展的一個“自然歷史過程”。隨著經濟全球化的迅速發(fā)展,學者們開始關注對外開放對一個地區(qū)城市化進程的影響。因此,研究對外開放對中國城市化發(fā)展的影響,并探索如何利用對外開放推進中國城市化的發(fā)展是一個非常有現實意義的課題。鑒于此,本文以中國31個省市和284個地級城市面板數據為樣本,基于國際貿易理論、國際投資理論和城市化相關理論,研究對外開放對城市化發(fā)展的影響。首先,對中國進出口貿易、外商直接投資與新型城市化發(fā)展水平的現狀進行分析。近年來,我國進出口的區(qū)域分布變化不大,東部沿海地區(qū)是我國進出口市場的主要聚集地,其次是中部地區(qū),最后是西部地區(qū)。雖然我國FDI大都集中在東部沿海地區(qū),中部地區(qū)流入的FDI少一些,西部地區(qū)更少(重慶與成都除外),但是部分FDI開始向中部地區(qū)或西部地區(qū)轉移。新型城市化水平比較高的城市主要分布在京津冀城市群、長三角城市群、長株潭城市群以及廣東與福建的部分城市,然后中部地區(qū)的部分城市,最后是西部地區(qū)的城市。就全國層面而言,我國新型城市化水平呈倒“U”型的走勢,整體城市化水平先是上升,然后又出現下降。其次,在二元經濟模型的基礎上構建理論框架和計量模型,以我國284個地級及以上城市2003~2013年的城市面板數據研究了進出口貿易對城市化的影響。其結果顯示,進口貿易與出口貿易均顯著有利于人口城市化水平提高,且二者的作用效果基本一致;進出口貿易總額對人口城市化的綜合影響顯著為正,且這一綜合影響效果顯著高于單純出口與進口影響總和。分地區(qū)的研究結果顯示,各地區(qū)出口額與進口額對人口城市化影響均顯著為正,且在東部和西部地區(qū)出口對城市化的作用大于進口,而在中部地區(qū)進口的作用則大于出口;進出口貿易對西部地區(qū)城市化的綜合影響最大,東部次之,中部最小。進一步通過考察進出口貿易對人口城市化不同分位點的邊際效應及其變化趨勢發(fā)現,隨著人口城市化分位數的提高,進口和出口貿易均呈現先增后降的發(fā)展趨勢,且進口對城市化邊際貢獻的拐點出現在25%的分位點,而出口對城市化邊際貢獻在75%分位點處;進出口貿易對城市化的綜合邊際效應呈現先降后增的u型發(fā)展趨勢。此外,本文還進一步研究進出口貿易對新型城市化指數的影響,結果顯示:進出口貿易對城市化的綜合作用比單純出口和進口的影響效果更明顯,且出口的作用效果明顯大于進口,出口對新型城市化水平的影響由東向西依次遞減,進口的作用在中部地區(qū)最大、東部次之、西部最小。進出口貿易綜合作用由東向西依次遞減。進一步的分位數回歸結果顯示,隨新型城市化指數分位點提高,出口貿易的參數估計均顯著為正且基本呈遞增趨勢;進口貿易對各分位點新型城市化水平的影響先增后減,且僅在25%、50%及75%分位點顯著;進出口貿易對各分位點新型城市化水平的綜合促進作用均大于出口或進口時的情況,且隨分位點增加,其邊際貢獻不斷提高。然后,根據我國省際數據,采用動態(tài)面板模型研究對外貿易結構對城市化發(fā)展的影響。其結果顯示,無論是靜態(tài)還是動態(tài)面板數據模型分析均得出對外貿易結構的改善能顯著的促進我國總體、東部地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)以及西部地區(qū)的人口城市化進程。此外,以新型城市化指標為被解釋變量時,其實證結果顯示,對外貿易結構的改善有利于促進新型城市化、經濟城市化、空間城市化以及社會城市化的發(fā)展,尤其在東部地區(qū)最為顯著。而在中部地區(qū)對外貿易結構只有在10%的顯著性水平下對空間城市化產生顯著的影響,對社會城市化的影響不顯著。在西部地區(qū)對外貿易結構對新型城市化的影響主要體現在對經濟城市化和人口城市化的促進作用上,而對空間城市和社會城市化的影響不顯著。接著,分析FDI影響城市化進程的作用機理,并構建計量經濟模型,實證研究FDI流入對我國城市化進程的影響。其實證結果顯示:在全國樣本下,FDI流入會對城市化水平產生顯著的正向作用。在分地區(qū)樣本下,在東、中、西部地區(qū),FDI流入都會顯著性推動城市化進程,就影響效果而言,東部地區(qū)的系數大于中部地區(qū)的,而中部地區(qū)的系數又大于西部地區(qū)的。分位數回歸結果顯示,隨城市化分位點增加,FDI對城市化的邊際貢獻由低分位數向高分位數不斷降低,這說明與城市化水平較高城市相比,城市化率較低的城市其FDI流入對它的城市化進程具有更大的推動作用。隨著城市化率的提高,FDI的這種正向作用在下降。此外,本文也進一步研究FDI對新型城市化指數的影響,結果顯示:在全國樣本下,FDI流入會對新型城市化水平產生顯著的正向作用。在分地區(qū)樣本下,在東、中、西部地區(qū),FDI流入都會顯著性推動城市化進程,就影響效果而言,也是由東向西逐漸下降的。分位數回歸結果顯示,各分位點上,FDI的參數估計均顯著為正且較為穩(wěn)定。最后,根據相關研究結論,本文從進出口在城市化推進中的互補性、進出口貿易質量、提高外資綜合優(yōu)勢和利用效益、優(yōu)化進出口貿易和外商直接投資結構、因地制宜地制定對外開放和城市化政策等方面提出對策。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on the urbanization of China is one of the topics that many economists and policymakers pay attention to. Nobel Economics Prize winner and American economist Joseph Stiglitz once said that there were two things that had the greatest impact on the world in twenty-first Century: one is the high-tech industry in the United States, the two is China's urbanization. The party's eighteen is the eighteen. The government insists on the road of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics. In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, 2014, the government work report and the national new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years), the government continued to emphasize that the positive and stable new urbanization is one of the biggest driving forces to stabilize the economic growth. The traditional urbanization theory holds that the urbanization of a region is a "natural historical process" for the development of the domestic economic system. With the rapid development of economic globalization, scholars begin to pay attention to the influence of opening to the outside world on the process of a regional urbanization. Therefore, the study of the impact of opening to the outside world on the development of China's urbanization and exploring how to make use of the opening to the outside world to promote the development of China's urbanization is a very realistic subject. In view of this, this paper is based on the international trade theory, international investment theory and urbanization based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China and 284 cities. First, the current situation of China's import and export trade, foreign direct investment and the development level of new urbanization are analyzed. In recent years, the regional distribution of China's import and export has changed little, the eastern coastal area is the main gathering place for China's export market, followed by the central region, In the last part of the western region, although most of China's FDI is concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, there are less FDI inflows in the central region and less in the western region (except Chongqing and Chengdu), but some of the FDI begin to transfer to the central or western regions. The cities with higher urbanization level are mainly distributed in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, The city of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and some cities in Guangdong and Fujian, and then some cities in the central region, and finally the cities of the western region. As far as the national level is concerned, the level of new urbanization in China is "inverted U", and the overall urbanization level is first rising and then declining. Secondly, it is built on the basis of the two yuan economic model. The theoretical framework and measurement model are used to study the impact of import and export trade on Urbanization Based on the city panel data of 284 cities in China at 2003~2013 level and above. The results show that both import and export trade are significantly beneficial to the improvement of population urbanization, and the effects of the two are basically the same; the total amount of import and export trade is to the population. The comprehensive impact of urbanization is significantly positive, and the effect of this comprehensive impact is significantly higher than the total effect of export and import. The effect of the mouth is greater than the export; the import and export trade has the most comprehensive influence on the urbanization of the western region, Higashibe Jinno and the middle part. Further, the import and export trade is first found that the marginal effect of import and export trade on the different sub sites of population urbanization and the trend of its change show that the import and export trade are first presented with the increase of the number of urbanization in the population. The inflexion point of the marginal contribution to urbanization is at the 25% point, while the export to the marginalization of the urbanization is at the 75% point, and the comprehensive marginal effect of import and export trade to urbanization first decreases and then increases the U-shaped trend. In addition, this paper further studies the import and export trade to the new urbanization. The results show that the effect of import and export trade on urbanization is more obvious than that of export and import, and the effect of export is obviously greater than that of import. The effect of export on the new urbanization level is decreasing in turn from east to west. The role of import is the largest in the middle and central regions, Higashibe Jinno, the west is the smallest. The further quantile regression results showed that with the increase of the new urbanization index, the estimation of the export trade parameters were both positive and basic, and the effect of import trade on the new urbanization level of each site first increased and then decreased, and was only at 25%, 50% and 75% points. The comprehensive promotion effect of export trade on the new urbanization level of each sub site is greater than that of export or import, and its marginal contribution is increasing with the increase of the sub loci. Then, according to China's inter provincial data, the dynamic panel model is used to study the influence of foreign trade structure on the development of urbanization. The analysis of dynamic panel data model shows that the improvement of foreign trade structure can significantly promote the population urbanization process in China, Eastern, central and western regions. In addition, with the new urbanization index as the explanatory variable, the results show that the improvement of foreign trade structure is beneficial to the promotion of new cities. The development of urbanization, urbanization and social urbanization, especially in the eastern region, is the most significant. In the central region, the foreign trade structure has a significant impact on the spatial urbanization only under the 10% significant level, and the influence on the social urbanization is not significant. In the western region, the foreign trade structure is a new urbanization. The influence is mainly reflected in the promotion of Economic Urbanization and population urbanization, but not significant to the influence of the spatial city and the social urbanization. Then, it analyzes the effect mechanism of FDI on urbanization process and constructs a econometric model to empirically study the influence of FDI inflow on the process of urbanization in China. Under the national sample, the inflow of FDI will have a significant positive effect on the urbanization level. Under the sub regional samples, in the East, middle and western regions, the influx of FDI will significantly promote the urbanization process. In terms of the effect, the coefficient of the eastern region is greater than that of the central region, and the coefficient of the central region is greater than that in the western region. It shows that the marginal contribution of FDI to urbanization increases from low quantile to high quantile with the increase of urbanization point, which shows that compared with the city with higher level of urbanization, the inflow of FDI in cities with lower urbanization rate has a greater impetus to its urbanization process. With the increase of urbanization rate, the positive effect of FDI In addition, the effect of FDI on the new urbanization index is further studied. The results show that the influx of FDI will have a significant positive effect on the new urbanization level under the national sample. Under the sub regional samples, the flow of FDI in the East, middle and western regions will significantly promote the urbanization process, and the effect is also caused by the effect. From the east to the west, the quantile regression results show that the parameters of FDI are significantly positive and stable on each of the sub sites. Finally, according to the relevant research conclusions, this paper is based on the complementarity of import and export in the urbanization promotion, the quality of import and export trade, the improvement of the comprehensive advantage and benefit of foreign investment, and the optimization of import and export trade and the direct foreign trade. The investment structure is put forward, and countermeasures are put forward for formulating the policy of opening to the outside world and urbanization in line with local conditions.

【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.2
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本文編號：1810484