發(fā)布時間：2018-04-09 09:47

  本文選題：極端氣溫事件　切入點：寒潮　出處：《山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2017年11期

【摘要】：目的探討極端氣溫對濟南市心腦血管疾病死亡的影響,并為制定防治對策提供依據(jù)。方法收集濟南市2011年至2014年居民心腦血管疾病逐日死亡資料和同時期的氣象資料。極端氣溫定義:寒潮為每年10月至第二年3月至少連續(xù)3 d日平均溫度低于濟南市2011年至2014年日平均溫度的第5百分位數(shù);熱浪為每年的5至8月至少連續(xù)3 d日平均溫度高于濟南市研究期間的日平均溫度的第95百分位數(shù)。采用時間序列泊松回歸模型,在控制長期趨勢、滯后效應(yīng)和氣象因素的影響后,定量分析平均溫度對心腦血管疾病日死亡人數(shù)及死亡風(fēng)險的影響。結(jié)果濟南市心腦血管疾病死亡分布具有明顯的季節(jié)性。極端氣溫暴露(寒潮和熱浪)期顯著增加了濟南市心腦血管疾病日均死亡人數(shù)(P0.01)。泊松回歸結(jié)果顯示,極端氣溫暴露顯著增加了濟南市心腦血管疾病的死亡風(fēng)險,寒潮期與熱浪期的死亡風(fēng)險分別為1.06(95%CI:1.03~1.10)和1.03(95%CI:1.00~1.06),與非極端氣溫暴露期比較,差異均有統(tǒng)計學(xué)意義(P0.05)。全部人群不論性別與年齡均是寒潮敏感人群,僅高年齡組(≥65歲)是熱浪敏感人群。結(jié)論極端氣溫顯著增加濟南市居民心腦血管疾病日死亡人數(shù)與死亡風(fēng)險;應(yīng)對極端氣溫制定公共衛(wèi)生應(yīng)急預(yù)警政策應(yīng)覆蓋全人群。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the effect of extreme temperature on death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan and to provide basis for prevention and treatment.Methods the daily death data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and meteorological data of the same period were collected from 2011 to 2014 in Jinan.Definition of extreme temperature: the cold wave is the 5th percentile of the mean daily temperature of at least 3 consecutive days from October to March of the following year, which is lower than the average daily temperature of Jinan from 2011 to 2014;The mean daily temperature of at least 3 consecutive days is higher than the 95th percentile of the daily average temperature during the period of study in Jinan city from May to August of each year.A time series Poisson regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the effects of mean temperature on the daily death toll and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases after controlling the long-term trend, lag effect and meteorological factors.Results the death distribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan city was obviously seasonal.Extreme temperature exposure (cold wave and heat wave) significantly increased the daily death toll of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan.The whole population was sensitive to cold wave regardless of sex and age, but the high age group (鈮，

本文編號：1725894